528
FXUS63 KICT 210544
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

..Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms possible this evening with shower/storm chances
  ramping-up for Sat night through Sun.

- Hot temperatures again for Sat across south central and
  southeast KS with highs in the upper 90s to around 100.

- Much cooler temperatures to start the work week with highs
  both Mon and Tue in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Currently have an upper low spinning over Southern CA with some
additional shortwave energy digging across the Northern Rockies.
Meanwhile, upper ridging remains across the Southern Plains. At
the surface, return flow is starting back up with a warm front
lifting across southwest KS.

Area of showers and storms has been lifting northeast from
Eastern NM into southwest KS with this activity in an area of
850-700mb moisture advection ahead of the upper wave. This area
of precip is expected to continue lifting northeast late this
afternoon with a few additional storms possible to the east of
this cluster, along the warm front. Will hold onto some small
pops this evening as the mid level theta-e advection translates
northeast but feel the most widespread activity tonight will be
after 06z over northeast KS were the better low level jet
dynamics will be maximized.

Highs on Sat will once again be 15-20 degrees above normal
across most of south central and southeast KS with readings
topping out in the upper 90s to around 100.

By Sat afternoon, upper low will be tracking northeast across
the Desert Southwest and will be moving across the Four Corners
region by early Sat evening. As the same time, shortwave trough
will swing across south central Canada and will allow a cold
front to move across the Northern Plains. Cold front is expected
to stretch from southeast Nebraska into west-central KS by Sat
afternoon. While there maybe some sct shower/storm activity
across mainly central KS Sat morning, feel the more widespread
showers and storms will hold off until Sat evening, when the
better upper diffluence approaches the area. Also still going
with the thinking that the better heavy rain potential will be
tied to the 850mb front which will be over central KS Sat night.
In addition, PW values Sat evening look to be around 200% of
normal, which should lead to some efficient rain producers.
Scattered showers/storms will persist into Sun as the front
continues to slowly push southeast and by 00z Mon, mainly only
the Flint Hills into southeast KS will still be seeing precip.

The good news is that confidence remains high in below normal
temps for Mon with some highs not making it out of the 60s! We
will see a gradual warmup for Tue but highs will still be below
normal. By mid week, medium range models start to diverge in the
placement of a cutoff low, with the ECMWF keeping the low over
the Southern High Plains while the GFS keep this feature over
the Missouri Valley. So this leads to low confidence beyond the
Tue time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

It`ll be a busy 24 hours across the region with a cold front
entering the region and widespread chances of showers and
storms.

For the morning hours, a cluster of thunderstorms across
southeast Kansas is bringing moderate to heavy rainfall with 25
to 40-knot gusts in some areas. This cluster should move into
Missouri between 07-09Z this morning. Additional showers and
isolated storms have also developed within the across portions
of central and south-central impacts. Other than the occasional
lightning strike, this activity should only produce very brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Further development this morning is
possible, but confidence in the forecast is low in terms of
storm chances this morning after 09Z.

It appears there will be a lull in activity roughly from about
09Z this morning through about the mid afternoon hours (21Z).
After 21Z, widespread showers and storms are expected to develop
across much of the area, but especially along and north of US54.
A few strong storms may be capable of producing 30 to 40-knot
wind gusts, but the main concerns will be lightning and pockets
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Storm chances are anticipated to
last through the end of the TAF period.

Meanwhile, a cold front will be tracking across the area today
starting around 18Z when a wind shift from southwesterly to
northerly arrives along I-70. This front will quickly progress
southward this afternoon and should be located across far
southeast Kansas by 03Z tonight. Wind speeds will generally be
around 10 to 15 knots both ahead and behind of the frontal
boundary. However, gusts up to 25 knots cannot be ruled out,
especially after frontal passage.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC