636
FXUS63 KICT 171853
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms across central and western CO will move into western KS
  this evening and possibly central KS overnight

- Additional storms, possibly severe, Wednesday afternoon/evening
  across central and south central KS

- Widespread rainfall possible throughout the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, a strong midlevel shortwave trough was
ejecting from the southwest US into the central Rockies. Scattered
convection has develop in-advance of the trough axis across central
and western CO. Short-range guidance progresses this convection east-
northeastward into portions of western KS this evening. The trough
axis is poised to progress into the northern Plains overnight. As
such, the strongest forcing-for-ascent will remain displaced to the
northwest of our forecast area. Therefore, confidence is not overly
high with widespread storms impacting the area tonight. The most
favored zone (50-60%) remains central KS tonight into Wednesday
morning. Meager lapse rates and shear should preclude any risk for
severe storms.

By Wednesday, this initial shortwave trough will be lifting into the
northern High Plains with a second shortwave digging across the
southwest US. The dryline will once again sharpen across west-
central KS with dew points increasing into the mid-60s. While
overall large scale ascent will remain meager, the conditional
environment will remain favorable for supercells with tremendous low-
level veering and modest speed shear aloft. At this point, the most-
favorable zone is generally along a line from Russell to Great Bend.
Any storm that develops, will have the potential to produce hail up
to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

Transitioning into Thursday, the previously mentioned shortwave
trough will begin to progress eastward. The associated surface
trough axis will sink southward into KS Thursday into Thursday
night. This trough axis will stall across the region Friday into
Friday night. A stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out Thursday
night and Friday night but the absence of a strong LLJ may preclude
widespread convection. As an even stronger midlevel trough emerges
from the southwest US Friday, a sharpening of the stalled surface
trough is expected with a 25-30 kt LLJ overrunning the boundary
Friday night Saturday morning. This should result in widespread
convection along and north of the front. At this point, the most
likely zone for convection appears to be north of I-70.

As the southwest US trough approaches the Four Corners region
Saturday, the surface trough will slowly sink southward. This will
bring the more-favorable zone for WAA driven convection to areas
along and south of I-70. This may continue into Saturday night into
Sunday. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended
towards a midlevel trough track from southwest CO through western
NE. This scenario would take the strongest height falls northwest of
our forecast area, decreasing rain chances late Sunday into Monday.
Now the big question is, how much rain might fall? EPS and NBM
probabilities remain quite consistent with generally the northern
half of KS standing the best potential to receive more than 1" of
rain from Friday night through Sunday. It seems quite likely that
southern KS will receive rainfall but probabilities for more than 1"
are lower than northern KS. Stay tuned over the next few days for
forecast updates.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Showers and storms have dissipated across central KS and should
not be a concern for the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Diurnally driven cumulus across southeast KS should lift to VFR
within the hour. Southeasterly winds will remain in the 10-15 kt
range for much of the period. Gusts up to 25 kt are expected at
GBD and RSL into the overnight hours. In addition, scattered
showers and storms are possible after 06Z at DDC, RSL, and SLN
but confidence is too low for a prevailing mention. Introduced a
PROB30 group with the most likely timeframe at each site.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF