113
FXUS63 KICT 152348
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- AM storm chances again for central KS next couple of days.

- Modest storm chances at mid-week with temperatures remaining
  above climo this week.

- Best chances for showers and storms with temperatures trending
  cooler by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The mid-level baroclinic zone situated across mid/central
Kansas will remain the focus for mainly morning convective
chances the next couple days with aid of a modest early morning
level jet over west central Kansas. As expected, such was the
case this morning where modified point soundings showed around
1500 j/kg cape rooted near 800 mb in the presence of steep
700-500 mb lapse rates. This was sampled better by the NAM and
12z forecast soundings for Monday morning appear to suggest
similar or perhaps a bit more instability over portions of
central Kansas. So despite rather weak flow aloft, a couple
pesky strong storms and localized heavy rainfall will be
possible for isolated to widely scattered locations. Perhaps a
somewhat more limited area in central Kansas mainly along/north
of I-70 will be possible again on Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
the more diurnally-driven convection will be focused over the
central high Plains through the early week. However, a window
for better chances look develop Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning, as a significant portion of the evolving longwave
western conus trof will eject northeastward across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains. This should allow for somewhat
more organized convection over the high Plains to move across
portions of central Kansas to perhaps the Flint Hills into
Wednesday morning. This could leave a potential boundary across
the area where diurnal heating could promote some redevelopment
of convection into Wednesday afternoon. The upper trof over the
western conus looks to reload as the upstream kicker digs
across California with an upper low center evolving over Nevada
Wednesday into Thursday. It will remain unseasonably warm into
Thursday and Friday before the western conus upper trof begins
to lift east-northeastward toward and into the central Plains
over the weekend. This should provide the entire area the best
chances for more numerous showers and storms along with cooler
temperatures behind a cold frontal passage.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Main aviation concern will be a few storms late tonight into Mon
morning.

Just like early this morning another round of iso-sct showers
and storms are expected generally after 10z with central KS
having the better chances. This will be the result of mid level
moisture transport along with some elevated instability in
place. For now will just run with some prob30s at KRSL-KSLN-KGBD
and continue to monitor model trends. Outside of convection,
confidence is high in VFR conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...RBL