018
FXUS63 KICT 181743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds expected again today across mainly south
  central Kansas.

- Storms expected to develop along a cold front after 21z this
  afternoon and will become more widespread this evening as they
  slowly track south. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain
  will be the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Currently have a shortwave trough tracking across the Northern
Rockies with upper ridging over the Eastern CONUS. At the
surface, cold front extends from southern MN and into far
northwest Nebraska with strong return flow remaining across the
southern/central Plains.

Shortwave energy will track into the Northern Plains today which
will allow the cold front to push south and by 21z will extend
from eastern Nebraska into north central Kansas and finally into
far sw KS. Storms are expected to develop along the front after
21z and should become more numerous after 00z as low level jet
impinges on the front. Will be plenty of instability for severe
storms with CAPE values in the 2,000-3,000J/KG range. In
addition, DCAPE values will be more than high enough for some
damaging downburst winds. The main limiting factor for high
end/widespread severe storms will be lack of decent shear with
0-6km shear in the 20-25kt range. With slow storm movement and
high rainfall rates expected, confidence is increasing that
heavy rain and associated flooding may end up being the more
significant threat this evening/overnight.

One of the main challenges with this event will be how far
south convection makes it tonight into Wed morning. Current
thinking is that locations along and especially north of Highway
50 will have the highest rainfall chances. Confidence is also
increasing that showers and storms will linger through the
morning hours Wed and likely into the afternoon for central KS
as the front slowly lifts back to the north and washes out.

By Thu morning, some shortwave energy will be coming onshore
over central CA with a broad area of upper ridging from the Mid
Atlantic States into the Ozark Region. This setup will shut-off
storm chances for the remainder of the work week. Between Fri
and Sat a series of upper impulses are expected to track out of
the Great Basin and across the Central Plains. The more
substantial of these waves will track over the Central Plains
Sat and will allow a weak cold front/surface trough to move
through the area Sat evening/overnight. After Wed, this will
bring our next storm chances. This far out, confidence in these
storms is low with the ECMWF holding the upper upper dynamics
further north compared to the GFS.

After wet and cool conditions on Wed, above normal temps will
return for Fri and especially through the weekend with highs in
the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary aviation concern today remains to be strong southerly
winds gusting to 30-40kts at all sites through the remainder of the
afternoon.

A frontal system currently making its way through northwest Kansas
is expected to touch off showers and storms in the late afternoon
and early evening hours. Right now, highest confidence is that these
will impact terminals in central Kansas. Not as confident in these
reaching KICT, so PROB30 is introduced to reflect this uncertainty.
Additionally, cigs lowered to near-IFR levels are expected to follow
in the wake of these storms beginning in the early morning hours on
Wednesday in central and south central Kansas. Stay tuned to later
forecasts for greater confidence in the timing and coverage of these
impacts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>069-082-
083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK