384
FXUS63 KICT 211910
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
210 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous/widespread showers with embedded storms tonight.

- Much cooler for Sunday with lingering showers/storms.

- Mild days/cool nights for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A strong signal for a welcome rainfall event ramping up early
this evening generally west of I-135 before spreading eastward
overnight thru Sunday across the rest of central and eastern
Kansas. An area of convection was moving out across the northern
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles at early afternoon well ahead of the
approaching upper trof just southwest of the Four Corners
region. While clouds have inhibited warming somewhat earlier in
the day, late afternoon sun/heating should result in mlcape
values around 1500 j/kg over parts of the area in the presence
of moderate deep layer shear. This should support a few strong
to marginally severe storms early this evening. Otherwise,
stronger forcing for ascent will move across the area overnight
in advance of the upper shortwave trof. Fairly high precipitable
water values (around 2") will lend to efficient rainfall from
any storms, especially along/west of the Kansas turnpike
corridor through early Sunday morning. The good news is that
some of this looks to fall over the drought-stricken areas of
south central Kansas just west and northwest of Wichita. The
main theme on Sunday will be much cooler weather with lingering
showers and perhaps a few storms on gusty northerly winds.

A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains
into Monday before being kicked eastward as a northern stream
upper trof settles southward across the northern Plains into the
Midwest on Tuesday. The medium range consensus seems to support
developing this into a cutoff low meandering somewhere over
Kansas or the central conus later in the week as a blocking
pattern (ridge aloft) building over the Upper Midwest/northern
Great Lakes. Overall, while moderating some, this looks to keep
temperatures a bit below seasonal climo thru the week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Area of showers and storms currently over southwest Kansas will
spread into central/south central Kansas this evening. In
addition, a cold front will push slowly southward across the
region tonight. The showers and storms will become more
widespread tonight along with low clouds building in across
central Kansas. The low cloud heights are expected to drop into
IFR category for late tonight into Sunday morning over. The
showers/storms will begin to taper off from west to east into
the morning hours on Sunday. North winds will prevail on Sunday
in the wake of the cold frontal passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for mid-upper 50s.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
CLIMATE...ADK