071
FXUS62 KILM 150550
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
150 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the Carolinas on Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms possible as it slides through. Behind
the front, high pressure will build in from the north and
maintain control through much of next week. Seasonably warm
temperatures are expected with rain chances returning late in
the week as a coastal trough develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor adjustments made to ongoing forecast. Warm, quiet
night in store with a low around 70F. Moderate risk of rip
currents at east-facing beaches for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Tropical Disturbance 90L, centered a little over 200 miles east of
Cape Fear, is undergoing substantial shear and is not expected to
develop as a tropical cyclone. This system will move farther
offshore tonight with a local lull developing in surface winds.
Despite the hot airmass, forecast lows are expected to fall into the
lower 70s for most areas with a few upper 60s in normally colder
spots.

A cold front currently dropping southward across Ohio should
approach the eastern Carolinas Saturday afternoon. Light
northwesterly 850 mb winds will bring the air currently being
strongly heated across the high terrain of the VA/NC mountains over
the NC/SC Coastal Plain Saturday. Our 850 mb temps could sneak a
little higher than today as a result, and coupled with strong June
sunshine ahead of the front I`m expecting the hottest temperature of
the year so far in Florence. Forecast highs are 93-97 tomorrow
inland from the beaches.

This heat will help generate CAPE near 2000 J/kg. Enhanced
convergence where the front and seabreeze collide Saturday afternoon
should result in scattered thunderstorms. Forecast PoPs range from
10 percent inland to 30-40 percent along the coast. Wind profiles
are not alarming for significant storm organization, however dry mid
level air could still promote strong, gusty winds in the biggest
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front should be progressing through the region or nearing
the southern border at the start of the period with isolated to
perhaps scattered shower and thunderstorm activity along it.
With the loss of daytime heating, overall intensity should be on
the decrease, but surface convergence provided by the front
should be able to keep at least some showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm going through the evening. Initially easterly winds
behind the front should back to northeasterly late in the night,
with drier air filtering into the Cape Fear area. Lows should
dip into the mid-upper 60s there, with lows around 70F
elsewhere.

On Sunday, the front stalls and weakens to our south while high
pressure initially over New England shifts offshore. This will
set up a persistent east-northeast flow while mid-level ridging
builds overhead. Dry and seasonable conditions will ensue with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. An isolated shower or two
cannot be ruled out near the west/southwestern borders of
Georgetown, Williamsburg, Florence, and Darlington counties,
closest to the weak front.

On Sunday night, the mid-level anticyclone and surface ridging
will be nearly overhead, with weak or calm winds and a deep
subsidence inversion in place leading to a clear night with lows
in the mid-upper 60s amidst lower dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate
through the first half of the week with mostly sunny and
seasonable weather in place. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
away from the immediate coast are expected with lows in the
mid-upper 60s each night, around 70 at the beaches.

Surface troughing along the coast should begin developing on
Wednesday and remain in place for Thursday and Friday. Without
much of an increase in moisture, only slight-chance PoPs are
introduced for the latter half of the week as convergence
provided by the troughing should help to touch off some light
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue for the most part through
the period. In the next few hours winds and dewpoint depressions
may decrease enough for some ground fog in places. For later
this afternoon it appears high resolution guidance is coming
into better agreement on the placement of a broken line of
convection almost west to east from the Pee Dee region to the
coast. May introduce VCTS in the next iteration of the
forecast...just not there quiet yet.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...
Tropical Disturbance 90L is centered a little over 200 miles east of
Cape Fear and will continue to move northeast and away from the area
tonight. Northeast winds from the disturbance should diminish in
speed and veer more southerly by this evening as synoptic winds
realign in advance of a cold front that will approach the area
Saturday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
intersection of Saturday`s seabreeze front and the incoming cold
front, producing locally strong outflow winds. Coverage is expected
to be 30-40 percent, but even areas that don`t directly experience
storms may still see gusty winds.

Sea heights are currently 2-4 feet in two distinct wave groups:
southeasterly at 7 seconds period and northeasterly at 6 seconds
period. The northeasterly wave group should diminish quickly
tonight, but the southeasterly group will persist through
Saturday with overall sea heights falling to 2-3 feet.

Saturday night through Wednesday...
Behind a weak cold front, winds will back from easterly to ENE
by early Sunday and gradually veer to easterly by late in the
day. A generally easterly flow will remain in place through the
period with high pressure to our north holding steady. A
combination of southeasterly and easterly swells will keep wave
heights around 2-3 ft with some 4 ft seas possible in the outer
waters around 20 nmi offshore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for east- and southeast-facing beaches tomorrow due to
a southeasterly 2-3 ft swell and mainly for east-facing beaches
on Sunday as an easterly swell takes over. Lingering swells and
onshore winds should keep a moderate risk of rip currents going
for mainly the east-facing beaches into early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...