891
FXUS62 KILM 200555
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
155 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and mainly dry conditions will continue for the
next few days. A warming trend begins late in the week with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Heat
indices may reach the triple digits over the weekend. Onshore
flow will bring more humid conditions by the beginning of next
week with a better chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The area will remain between high pressure to the north and low
pressure to the south. This pattern will bring deep easterly
flow which will keep temps somewhat in check and allow for a few
showers, especially near the coast. Lows tonight should be in
the mid to upper 60s away from the warmer coastal areas with
highs Thursday ranging from the lower to mid 80s near the coast
to around 90 inland, both of which are near to slightly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure offshore will maintain easterly winds Thursday
night into Friday, weakening on Friday. A coastal trough on
Friday may bring a few showers to the immediate coastal areas.
Dry air aloft and poor lapse rates will limit their ability to
maintain organization inland. For now, have kept a chance of
showers on Friday afternoon, higher near the coast and farther
south. Highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows not offering
much relief with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Onshore flow continues on Saturday with low level moisture
advection increasing the potential for isolated showers and
storms along the coast. Ridging to our west and subsidence
overhead will allow temperatures to climb into the mid and upper
90s on Saturday. Heat and humidity continue to increase on
Sunday with inland areas possibly reaching 100 degrees. Heat
indices could reach the mid 100s by Sunday afternoon.

A cold front and upper trough approaches the area early next
week. Lifting upper low over southern Canada indicates that
trough will be less robust than models currently indicate. Given
the dry boundary layer and westerly flow, have capped rain
chances around 40% for now. NW flow aloft could provide better
lift for afternoon storms, primarily Monday. Drier aloft on
Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers and storms possible.
Above normal temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR throughout the 24 hr 06Z TAF Issuance period. Will
periodically observe FEW/SCT around 3k ft stratocu moving
onshore then quickly dissipating inland thru sunrise Thu.
There-after the days heating may aid in further development,
although limited in the vertical due to subsidence aloft. But
may be enough for a few light showers to occur, too isolated
to even place in the coastal terminals, during the daytime
morning hrs. Will periodically observe stratocu move onshore
thruout the day into the evening hrs. ENE-E flow to continue
during this period with gusts approaching 20 kt Thu aftn
especially across the coastal terminals. Winds will slightly
veer to the ESE due to the resultant bndry.

Extended Outlook...VFR TO prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR showers/storms and morning low clouds/fog
(especially starting Sat).

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... The pressure gradient will remain
slightly enhanced as the area remains between high pressure
to the north and low pressure to the south. Conditions will
be close to Small Craft Advisory levels, especially Thursday
out near 20 nm, but confidence in occurrence and coverage
wasn`t high enough to raise a headline yet.

Thursday Night through Monday Night... Onshore flow and
easterly swell will continue Thursday night into Friday. Swell
between 3-5 feet at 8-9 seconds will weaken late Friday as high
pressure offshore weakens and a trough develops well south of
the area. Bermuda high pressure regains control of the region
this weekend. Seas 2 to 3 feet for the upcoming weekend with a
combination of weakening E swell and S wind chop. Overnight
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
coastal waters each night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building ESE swell and upcoming full
moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) the end
of the week. A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for
Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown County beaches, as well as
Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, with high rip risk potentially
continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick
county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to
west longshore currents through Thursday, with an increasing rip
risk Friday due to the ESE swell. The area in between the two,
from north of Myrtle Beach to Ocean Isle Beach, will have a
combination of moderate rip current risk and moderate to strong
NE to SW longshore current Thursday with an increasing rip risk
Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEW