400
FXUS62 KILM 170540
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Improving conditions overnight into Tuesday as the weakening low
drives further inland and rainfall pivots northwest through
northeast of Southeast NC and Northeast SC. In the wake of the
low, drier air will slowly build in especially during Tue.
Warm conditions with daily low chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected through mid week. A weak cold front
will bring more seasonable temperatures towards the end of the
work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated to remove Coastal Flood Advisory from hazard line. No
additional information added.

Will need to monitor the Lower Cape Fear River for possible
successive high tide cycles that experience minor coastal
flooding during the next few days.

Latest radar imagery indicates the majority of the pcpn is now
NW thru NE of the ILM CWA. Have manipulated overnight POPs to a
lower bias if not altogether removing them completely with
subsidence generally prevailing in the low`s wake. Should see a
low stratus stratocu cloud deck overnight into daylight Tue.
Sfc pg relaxes quite a bit in the wake of the lows continued
inland passage. If winds drop below 5 mph, fog could become an
issue.

846 PM EDT UPDATE...
Extended the CFW for minor coastal flood advisory around the
times of high tide across all beaches by an additional hour
this evening as levels are slower to recede below minor coastal
flood thresholds for the respective NC and SC Coasts.

508 PM EDT UPDATE...
All Tropical Warning headlines have been discontinued across the
land and marine areas of the ILM CWA. Sfc low straddling the
Northeast SC Coast, will move onshore and weaken as it tracks
further NW and inland. Flash Flood Watch discontinued for the
remainder of the ILM SC CWA, remains in effect for all of the
ILM NC CWA. Heaviest rainfall will pivot northward and further
inland, away from the ILM CWA with time during this evening and
overnight. SCA is now in effect for all ILM Coastal Waters.
Rivers across the district will respond to the recent heavy
rainfall, with a River Flood Warning having just been posted for
the Lumber River, Lumberton area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few
storms will gradually diminish from east to west overnight. The
heavy rain threat continues in the flood watch area except for
Georgetown County which will be removed from the watch. Tuesday
will see improving conditions with a small chance for a few
showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s
to around 70. Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Over the short term period the remnant low of PTC 8 will
dissipate to our NW. The remaining trough axis will pass back
overhead Wed with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder
chances in the forecast through the end of the period. Lows in
the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough axis will remain in the area with periodic shortwaves
moving through aloft. This unsettled pattern will lead to the
possibility of showers/thunderstorms through the end of the work
week. A front may move through later in the period bringing
relatively drier air, but confidence is low on timing.
Temperatures will cool to near seasonable towards the end of
the period due to the passing front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mix of VFR/MVFR and IFR across the region this morning. IFR is
confined to inland terminals and is expected to remain at FLO
through daybreak. LBT is a little more of a question mark.
Ceilings had been dropping, but have now leveled off around
1500 ft. Profile data/soundings suggest ceilings may dip to
around 1000 ft near daybreak, but may just avoid IFR. Along the
coast there is a little more mixing in the boundary layer,
keeping ceilings across coastal SC in the 1k-2k ft range. These
will gradually increase during the morning with development of
VFR expected around midday. Along the NC coast an area of low
level dry air is working its way onshore and will help keep
skies VFR for the next few hours. Expect MVFR to return around
or shortly after daybreak.

Occasional wind gusts of 15-20 kt are possible this afternoon,
but due to very infrequent nature have not opted to include any
gusts in the TAFs. VFR will eventually develop at all sites by
afternoon, with inland sites taking the longest to reach VFR.
VFR will continue overnight.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR possible each morning through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... Expect rapidly improving conditions tonight
into Tuesday as tropical storm conditions abate after the low
moves inland. By Tuesday, expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT
and seas continuing to subside to 3 to 4 FT by afternoon.

Tuesday Night through Saturday... Southerly flow around 10 kts
is expected through a majority of the work week until a front
moves through, winds becoming light and northerly. Significant
seas around 3-4 feet with the dominant swell being 2-3 feet out
of the east at 9- 10 seconds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated astronomical tides, the strong onshore winds from
recent low pressure and E-ESE swells will all combine to
elevated water levels along the coasts of SE NC and NE SC...
leading to minor coastal flooding at times of high tide this
evening.

Other - Rip Currents:
E to ESE swells, although slowly eroding, will remain conducive
to cause a high risk of rip currents for all beaches through
Tuesday. Diminishing winds will become south to southwest by and
during Tuesday helping to subside the strong longshore currents
of the past few days.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106-108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...LEW/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...