290
FXUS62 KILM 220120
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
920 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry forecast continues for the remainder of the weekend, with
high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above
seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain
chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next
frontal system.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure will continue to be in place through the
forecast period under the northwest flow aloft. A weak shortwave
may bring a few clouds and very isolated showers late tonight
and again Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight will once again be in
the middle 60s with highs Sunday a touch warmer than today in
the middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry weather expected this period. In fact, forecast may
end up being completely dry with an upr-level ridge axis moving
into the area. For now, decided to include some slight chance
PoPs inland based on latest guidance and increasing deep-layer
moisture late Monday. Temps remain seasonable...highs in the
low/mid 80s Mon with lows Sun night and Mon night 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low confidence forecast continues throughout the long term
period. Initial complication is an upr-level trough moving
through the Upper Midwest and its evolution as a closed low
breaks off over the central CONUS. This low will eventually
interact with a possible tropical cyclone (NHC has 60% chance of
formation) moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Locally, cannot rule
out the chance of rain any of the days this period, but the
best chances will be during the latter half of the period when
the better forcing approaches the area. Temps remain close to
climatological norms.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. A drier column tonight will
prevent the patchy fog seen in recent days. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough may spark a few showers late tonight over NC
but coverage will be limited and no heavy rain is expected.
Light winds continue into Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry and VFR until midweek when a cold
front approaches, and daily early morning MVFR/IFR from
fog/stratus remains possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Pressure gradient remains weak for the coastal
waters through Sunday. The persistent northeast flow seen over
the past several days will turn more east to southeast.
Significant seas will remain low 2-3 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions prevail.
E/NE flow continues early this period with sfc high pressure off
to the NE. Then as the high moves offshore and potential low
pressure moves into the Gulf of Mexico, onshore flow and seas
will start to slowly ramp up closer to 6 ft, but at this point
this looks to be moreso Friday than Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into
early next week with high astronomical tides and a modest
northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for minor coastal
flooding requiring an advisory. However, criteria along the
lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south may reach Moderate
Coastal flood thresholds requiring a Coastal Flood Warning.
Upstream waters working their way down the Cape Fear River will
also influence the flooding on both sides of the Cape Fear River
including Brunswick County.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107-109.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...