822
FXUS61 KILN 141855
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves into the region resulting in mostly sunny
skies and increasingly warm temperatures. Starting Sunday, and
persisting into the majority of the working week, high
temperatures will reach the nineties. Overnight lows in the mid
seventies providing little relief from the heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Friday`s cold front will be departing the region at the start of
the near term period, leaving a slightly cooler airmass in its
place. Overnight low temperatures drop into the upper 50s/low
60s. Ridging aloft coupled with surface high pressure moves
into the region; mass subsidence results in mostly clear skies
overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge/high pressure continue to dominate the forecast on
Saturday, keeping the region dry and mostly sunny. Daytime high
temperatures rise to the mid 80s, with dew points falling to the
50s, resulting in a slight relief from the heat. The high
continues to move east through the Ohio Valley into the evening
hours and southerly flow will return during the late overnight
hours. This starts the return of moisture and heat into the
region and will be the onset of some very warm/sticky
conditions.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main concern in the extended period, Sunday through Friday, will
be the expected prolonged heat wave that we have been discussing
over the last several days.

A mid level ridge will begin to build northward into the middle Ohio
Valley on Sunday. Low level flow will also become southerly. Thus,
dewpoints will begin to creep upward as well as air temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Some heat
indices may reach near 95 along and south of the Ohio River.

For the upcoming period, Monday through Friday, the mid level ridge
will continue to build across the Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic, and
parts of New England. There are some hints that a weak s/wv may ride
on the western periphery of the ridge during the Monday/Tuesday
time frame. This may bring a low chance of a shower/storm and
perhaps a little more clouds. Otherwise, the mid and latter parts of
the week will feature hot temperatures with dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s. This will result in heat indices in the 100 to 105
degree range. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 90s, with
a chance of 100 degrees being reached at some locations. Little
relief will be felt at night with lows generally in the lower to mid
70s. Will continue to highlight the heat and humidity in the HWO.
Will also watch if records may be tied or broken (Max Temps, High
Minimum Temps). And with the diurnal instability, an isolated
afternoon/evening shower/storm (10-15 percent) can not be ruled
out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Kept a VFR forecast through the entire period, however,
scattered showers and storms that develop near the northeastern
TAF sites this afternoon and evening may briefly drop VSBYs with
heavier downpours. However, confidence on timing and location is
low, so did not include in TAFs for now and will rely on AMDs as
needed (if needed). Other sites may see a passing shower/storm
but likelihood is lower.

After these storms pass southeast through the region, winds
shift to out of the northeast during the overnight hours, around
5-10 knots. Mid-level clouds clear out to leave clear skies
behind.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA