257
FXUS61 KILN 142350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
750 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure entering the Ohio Valley will result in mostly
sunny skies and increasing temperatures. Starting Monday and
lasting through Friday, high temperatures are expected to reach
the middle and upper 90s. Overnight lows from 70 to 75 will
compound any heat related issues that the region faces for the
coming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Back edge of the thunderstorm exiting Hocking County will mark
the end of any severe threat this evening, and likely any
continued chance for showers. Have a slight chance of showers
running in a narrow area east of the Scioto River south of
Chillicothe in the next hour or so. To that end, update is
primarily to account for dropping the severe thunderstorm
watch.

Cold front crossing the area tonight will be noted by the wind
shift and lower dewpoints, with a slight decrease in
temperatures of the airmass behind it. Lows will drop into the
upper 50s/low 60s. Ridging aloft coupled with surface high
pressure moves into the region; mass subsidence results in
mostly clear skies overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge/high pressure continue to dominate the forecast on
Saturday, keeping the region dry and mostly sunny. Daytime high
temperatures rise to the mid 80s, with dew points falling to the
50s, resulting in a slight relief from the heat. The high
continues to move east through the Ohio Valley into the evening
hours and southerly flow will return during the late overnight
hours. This starts the return of moisture and heat into the
region and will be the onset of some very warm/sticky
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main concern in the extended period, Sunday through Friday, will
be the expected prolonged heat wave that we have been discussing
over the last several days.

A mid level ridge will begin to build northward into the middle Ohio
Valley on Sunday. Low level flow will also become southerly. Thus,
dewpoints will begin to creep upward as well as air temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Some heat
indices may reach near 95 along and south of the Ohio River.

For the upcoming period, Monday through Friday, the mid level ridge
will continue to build across the Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic, and
parts of New England. There are some hints that a weak s/wv may ride
on the western periphery of the ridge during the Monday/Tuesday
time frame. This may bring a low chance of a shower/storm and
perhaps a little more clouds. Otherwise, the mid and latter parts of
the week will feature hot temperatures with dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s. This will result in heat indices in the 100 to 105
degree range. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 90s, with
a chance of 100 degrees being reached at some locations. Little
relief will be felt at night with lows generally in the lower to mid
70s. Will continue to highlight the heat and humidity in the HWO.
Will also watch if records may be tied or broken (Max Temps, High
Minimum Temps). And with the diurnal instability, an isolated
afternoon/evening shower/storm (10-15 percent) can not be ruled
out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any patchy lingering cu this evening will die out in short order
and the TAF forecast for the region favors clear skies through
the period. A wind shift over CVG/LUK from nw-n and then ne will
begin to mark the decreased humidity in the post-frontal
airmass. Nne winds overnight should linger 4-6kt and then turn
east before noon, increasing to 7-10kt. For the sake of
simplicity, a new line was not added to KCMH/LCK for winds
veering 20-30 degrees and increasing 2-3kt in the morning.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA/Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA/Franks