Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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312 FXUS61 KILN 081040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 640 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers will be possible today into tonight as a weak upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. Mainly dry conditions are then expected through much of the upcoming week. After a cool day on Monday, a warming trend will develop across the region through mid to late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... A mid level short wave currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will weaken as it moves east into the mid Ohio Valley through this afternoon. Fairly widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity back across Missouri early this morning will continue to move east southeast today but will be moving into a drier airmass with little in the way of instability. As a result, the more widespread pcpn should begin to dissipate as it approaches our western areas so will only carry some lower end pops for today, with the highest chances across our southwestern areas. Otherwise, we will see skies becoming mostly cloudy today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A weak surface trough/cold front will drop southeast across our area tonight into Sunday morning. Forcing looks to be fairly weak and deeper moisture remains limited, so will generally limit any pops to just slight chance for tonight into Sunday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast with highs on Sunday in the 75 to 80 degree range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period will see a warming trend from below normal temperatures to well above normal by the end of the week. Much of the week is rain-free, but a weak frontal passage on Thursday night or Friday may spark a chance of thunderstorms. Starting off Sunday night into Monday, the trough axis will swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, reinforcing lower theta-e values into the region. This will support below normal temperatures on Monday with some locations struggling to climb into the 70s. The coolest temperatures will be experienced Monday night as surface high pressure build in from the north. Most locations drop into the upper 40s but the warmer spots may remain in the lower 50s. Either way, a chilly morning should be expected for Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies support warmer temperatures in comparison to Monday with locations approaching normal (upper 70s to lower 80s). A weak boundary approaches on Wednesday, prompting southwesterly flow and another bump in high temperatures back into the 80s. A stronger boundary approaches from the north on Thursday. Modest low- level moisture returns ahead the front, sparking thunderstorms to the northwest of the local area. Forecast soundings from the GFS show that lower values of instability exist across the area, but certainly can`t rule out remnant convective activity eventually moving into the eastern Indiana/west-central Ohio locations late Thursday. The boundary will provide a chance for thunderstorms across the local area on Friday, but timing will be the key for how scattered/widespread these will be. Current forecast high temperatures are quite high on Friday (upper 80s and lower 90s), but this is made with lower confidence to the potential influence of the front and any thunderstorms. Lastly, confidence remains high that entering the following weekend/early next week, temperatures will be above normal. The latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook (June 15-21) calls for a 70-80% of above normal temperatures. Enjoy the cooler / lower humidity conditions because more summer-like weather appears to be arriving soon. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weakening mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley today. Showers associated with this will continue to push east today but should weaken as they encounter some drier air across our area. A few light rain showers will still be possible late this morning and into this afternoon, especially across southwest portions of our area. Will go ahead and hang on to a VCSH for a few hour period today at KCVG/KLUK. Otherwise, VFR clouds will thicken up and lower today. A weak cold front will push southeast across the region tonight into Sunday morning. This could lead to a few showers overnight but chances appear low enough to leave any mention out of the TAFs. Meanwhile, some MVFR cigs will develop late tonight as the cold front moves through. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...JGL