201
FXUS61 KILN 121040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will bring above normal temperatures to the
region for the next week. A system will bring a chance for
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday with additional
thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered upper level clouds have continued overnight and will
persist into the early morning hours. Winds remain light and
variable as surface high pressure gradually slides to the east
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Light
southwesterly flow supports a bump in afternoon high
temperatures from yesterday with temperatures reaching the low
to mid 80s. Even with the warmup, surface moisture is quite
meager, resulting in an atmosphere that is still one
characterized as low humidity.

The influence of the high pressure to the east continues into
the evening with calm weather conditions forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
With high pressure sitting off to the east, the pressure
gradient will begin to tighten slightly across the west and
northwest as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The
tightened pressure gradient means that winds will remain
slightly elevated overnight across the northwest, with winds
going calm and variable everywhere else. This results in a
temperature profile where the cooler temperatures (mid to upper
50s) are situated across the south and east, and the warmer
temperatures (mid 60s) across the northwest. Some of the river
valleys may even reach the low 50s.

Entering the morning hours on Thursday, can`t rule out some
partly cloudy skies with any remnant mid-upper level clouds
sheared away from the shortwave driven activity across the
Great Lakes region. The biggest story will be the next bump in
high temperatures as southwesterly flow strengthens in the
afternoon. The shortwave will pass through during the morning,
and mid- level heights will rise, promoting efficient warming.
Expect temperatures to quickly rise into the mid 80s with high
temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. However,
despite the very warm temperatures, boundary layer moisture
continues to be on the lackluster side (upper 50s/lower 60s),
reducing the overall impact of the hot afternoon. A secondary
shortwave will be moving in during the evening hours, advancing
the cold front closer to the area. More details in the next
section...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will drop down across the southern
Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, helping to push a
weakening cold front southeast across our area. Thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front will be off to our northwest at the
start of the period and these will likely weaken as they move
southeast into a more stable airmass across our area Thursday
evening and into the overnight hours. However, depending on the
exact timing, suppose a few stronger storms may be possible
across our far northwest early Thursday evening as this is
where/when some slightly better instability/deep layer shear
will coincide. Some lower end pops may linger into Friday,
especially across our southeast, as the front continues to move
through. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the mid 80s. Surface
high pressure will push east across the Great Lakes and upper
Ohio Valley through the day on Saturday. This will lead to dry
conditions with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s.

Mid an upper level ridging will then build into the region
through early next week. There remains some uncertainty among
the models with the overall strength of this ridge and as a
result, some of the effects of any mid level energy riding over
the top of it. It does look like we should at least see a decent
warm up Sunday and then again into Monday, with Monday likely
being the hottest day. For now, will go with highs on Sunday in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, warming to highs in the low to mid
90s for Monday. Dewpoints will also creep up through this time
period, with some triple digit heat indices possible by Monday
afternoon. We may also see a few diurnal pop up thunderstorms
later Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Temperatures become a little more uncertain for Tuesday,
depending on the strength of the ridge and any potential pcpn.
For now, will generally go with highs on Tuesday in the lower
90s with heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Continue to see a mixture of mid and upper-level clouds
this morning across the area with prevailing VFR restrictions
through the remainder of the period.

Winds through the period will be light and variable, with a
predominant south or southwesterly direction Wednesday afternoon
around 5 knots.

Winds begin to increase Thursday afternoon, and this has been
noted in the 30-hr CVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis