977
FXUS61 KILN 201550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1150 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected today, with a chance of showers and storms returning
as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and
storms is likely Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and
passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler conditions are in
store for the end of workweek, although there may be additional
chances for showers and storms by Friday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level ridge axis to settle slightly south and east today.
Shortwave over the Middle MS Valley to dampen out as it tracks
thru the Great Lakes around the periphery of the ridge this
afternoon. Most of the area will remain dry today with an isold
shower or storms clipping the far north late in the day into
early evening.

Few to scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds will develop
again this afternoon. Unseasonably warm conditions to continue
with highs reaching into the upper 80s for most locations. An
isolated 90 degree reading is possible at the typical warm
spots.

The daily record highs at Cincinnati/Columbus/Dayton of
92/91/91, respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
While the short term period is not expected to be active, there
will be /some/ activity to keep an eye on from time to time. The
first of this will be associated with a weakening S/W
approaching from the W this evening, moving into the local area
overnight. There may be one or more small clusters of weakening
convection that make their way into the local area (specifically
WC OH) around/after midnight, but confidence on maintenance of
this activity with eastward extent is fairly low. Do think that
some of the same areas that saw some ISO/SCT convection earlier
this evening will be the favored areas once again, especially
late this evening/early overnight from WC into central OH. Have
included a slight chance PoP in these areas to account for this
potential as the radar will most likely not be completely clear
into early tonight.

Otherwise, expect another warm and humid overnight period with
temps dipping into the mid 60s.

Another /very/ warm day is on tap Tuesday, which may end up
being the warmest day of the week. In fact, would expect that
the best chance to hit the 90-degree mark for the first time of
the year will be Tuesday as midlevel ridging will briefly build
in once again (especially across the wrn parts of the area) as
the potent S/W ejects to the NE through the upper Midwest. While
there will be slight chance for a few afternoon/evening
SHRA/TSRA in central OH as remnants of the weak S/W linger, most
areas should stay dry once again. Highs top out in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees amidst a subtle strengthening in the LL
southwesterly flow and a mix of sun and clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is an uncommonly high degree of uncertainty for the day
3/4 forecast. In general, strong low pressure will be lifting
northeast into the Upper Midwest to start the period Tuesday
night, while a high-amplitude ridge is centered over the United
States Eastern Seaboard. At this time, guidance is struggling
with how much progress the low and its associated cold front
make into the ridge for mid-week.

Looking at the European ensemble, quite a few members show little
forcing and only isolated PoPs heading into Wednesday morning, with
most showing some convection developing from midday into the
afternoon well ahead of a lagging cold front. Severe weather
potential is also uncertain... but it appears the best upper level
support for organized thunderstorms remains to our southwest and
west, with maybe some threat spreading into east-central Indiana and
west-central Ohio on Wednesday. Due to this, will keep a mention in
the HWO with low-end confidence at this time.

There will likely be showers and a few storms Wednesday night into
the day on Thursday depending on the progress of the slow-moving
cold front. The ECMWF is most progressive with the system (less PoPs
on Thursday) while the GFS slows things down (more PoPs on
Thursday). Either way, most guidance stalls the front to our south,
setting up additional shower and storm potential Friday, especially
across our southern counties. In the meantime, Thursday and Friday
may have closer to normal temperatures as the mid-level ridge gets
shunted a bit to the south and east of our CWA.

Sensible weather becomes even more uncertain heading into the
weekend. It seems prudent to keep a good chance of precipitation
(per the blend) with a stalled front in the area. In fact, both the
GFS ensemble and the European ensemble maintain a better than 50%
probability of >0.1" QPF through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface and ridging aloft will offer VFR conditions this
afternoon into this evening. Fair weather cumulus clouds between
4-5ft will develop again today before dissipating early this
evening.

As a shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes scattered convection
will affect northern Ohio with coverage of showers/storms
expected to remain north of the TAF sites.

Some MVFR valley fog may affect KLUK overnight with all other
TAF sites remaining VFR overnight. Cumulus clouds and high level
clouds to develop across the area Tuesday. Coverage of any
convection is too low to mention in the TAF forecast Tuesday.

Southwest winds at less than 10 kts will become light southerly
at 5kts or less overnight and than southwest around 10 kts
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely at times Wednesday into Thursday
morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into
Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR