542
FXUS61 KILN 270823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
423 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today. Some upper
level disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the
forecast through Wednesday. Dry conditions are then expected
Thursday through the first part of Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The severe threat has ended across the area this morning,
however there will be some additional showers and thunderstorms
as the cold front does not move through until the daytime hours.
Winds will be gusty again on Monday with wind gusts up around 30
mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Upper level disturbances will keep off and on precipitation
chances in the forecast through the short term. While this
precipitation will primarily just be showers, cannot rule out
some thunderstorms as well. This would generally be Tuesday
afternoon when there is some instability. Breezy conditions will
once again be in place for Tuesday afternoon with additional
wind gusts upwards of around 30 mph.

With the passage of the front temperatures will be cooler
tonight with lows in the 50s. High temperatures on Tuesday are
just expected to reach in the upper 60s to the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the period Tuesday night into Wednesday, a mean mid level
trough will extend from southeast Canada into New England, the
Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. Embedded s/wv energy moving
southeast through the base of this trough will cross our region.
This feature will team up with a cold front, and with the
cooler air moving in aloft, will result in an unstable
environment to bring showery pcpn (embedded thunder),
particulary for our northern and northeast CWFA. The cooling
trend will continue. After lows in the lower 50s, highs on
Wednesday will range from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s
south.

For Wednesday night into Thursday, another s/wv is forecast to pass
southeast across our region. However, the airmass with this
disturbance will become much drier such that pcpn will end Wednesday
night, followed by dry weather on Thursday. It will continue cool
with lows in the mid 40s to the lower 50s and highs from the mid 60s
north to the lower 70s south.

As the mean mid level trough shifts east Thursday night into Friday,
high pressure at the surface and aloft will build into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies will be mostly clear/mostly sunny. The
coolest morning will be Friday morning will light to calm winds
(mid/upper 40s), followed by highs in the lower 70s to mid 70s.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will move off to the east
Friday night into Saturday. We should be able to eek out a mostly
dry forecast, although moisture will be increasing in the return
flow from the southwest. Temperatures will return to near seasonal
normals for early June (upper 50s for lows and upper 70s for highs).

By Sunday, models diverge on the overall pattern evolution once the
ridge exits to the east. An increase in moisture and perhaps a weak
front may bring low chances for showers and storms by then. Again,
seasonal temperatures are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorm complex has developed into the area. Some of the
storms have been strong to severe but are generally becoming
less organized as they run into less favorable thermodynamics.

VFR ceilings are expected to drop into MVFR category and remain
there thru the morning. Surface cold front to sweep east thru
the TAF sites early today with pcpn chances diminishing from the
west.

VFR is likely to return this afternoon as clouds lift and
scatter out. VFR conditions are expected to persist tonight.

Southerly winds around 10 kts to veer southwesterly this morning
and then westerly this afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25 to 30
kts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR