325
FXUS61 KILN 191834
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
234 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms
returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for
showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
slightly cooler and drier conditions for the second half of the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Narrow mid level ridge to build into the area today. Patchy
river valley fog has improved leaving abundant sunshine. Expect
only a few cumulus clouds and some thin high level clouds
spilling in from the northwest. Mid level ridge and lack of
forcing will inhibit convective development across most of the
area today. Moderate instability axis develops into northwest
Ohio around the periphery of the mid level ridge ahead of a
surface front. An isold shower could slip into west central Ohio
prior to dissipating late in the day into early evening.

With abundant sunshine temperatures will warm into the mid and
upper 80s. These readings are 10 to 12 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly quiet conditions continue into the short term period as
midlevel ridging briefly noses NE into the OH Vly tonight into
early Monday. A S/W moving across the far nrn OH Vly late
Monday afternoon/evening may provide /just/ enough forcing to
initiate some SHRA/TSRA across nrn stretches of the region. But
there are uncertainties in regards to how widespread, or how far
south, this activity will extend. Once again, do think that
most spots locally remain dry, but suppose that a stray late-
day storm couldn`t be ruled out, especially during the evening
N of I-70 where the best LL moisture (and instby) should become
established. Further to the S, meager instby should keep locales
near/S of the OH Rvr dry through the period.

Lows tonight dip into the lower 60s (with some upper 50s
expected in rural/valley/sheltered locales), with temps
rebounding once again Monday afternoon into the mid to upper
80s area-wide. Temps through the next 3 days will generally be
about 10 degrees above seasonal norms across the board.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Above normal temperatures will be present to start the extended
period and will persist in the southerly flow ahead of a cold
front through Wednesday. Latest guidance continues to delay
frontal passage until Wednesday night. With warm, humid
conditions and adequate upper level wind flow, some severe storm
threat will exist Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night.

Cooler weather arrives behind the front Thursday into Friday.
Uncertainty increases with the next frontal system shifting east
into the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Chance PoPs seems
reasonable as flow becomes southerly again and low level moisture
returns north into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered fair weather shallow cumulus clouds have developed
under the influence of mid level ridging.

These clouds should linger into early evening, especially near
KDAY, as a weak front boundary and a few showers approach west
central Ohio. The isold showers are expected to remain north of
the TAF sites. Some valley fog will be possible overnight with
MVFR conditions forecast at KLUK.

VFR conditions for Monday with only few to scattered cumulus
clouds and some thin high level clouds.

Light northerly winds will become light and variable overnight
and then south at less than 10 kts Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR