793
FXUS61 KILN 230617
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
217 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end
of the work week and weekend. Temperatures are expected to
trend above normal through the weekend before a stronger system
impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, which will reduce
temperatures to near normal at the beginning of the next work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Evening update...

After a period of brief but rapid intensification, much of the
thunderstorm activity has weakened across the area. The 00Z ILN
RAOB provides a fairly confidence explanation as to why. 0-3 km
shear of 8 knots simply did not allow for the updrafts to
organize after the initial development. Outflow boundaries were
observed moving west and north away from the storm, indicating a
more "pulse-like" thunderstorm mode. The deeper layer shear
briefly allowed storms to organize, producing isolated severe
criteria hail, however, this was short lived even though there
remained plentiful CAPE.

Throughout the rest of the evening, maintained a slight chance
for thunderstorms along the boundary for the next few hours
before limiting it to showers overnight. Added a mention for
patchy fog along and south of the front with clearing of mid-
level clouds and low-level moisture lingering around the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A slight cooldown is forecast on Thursday, but temperatures
still trend slightly above seasonal normals. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be lower on Thursday, but still linger
given the stalled, weak frontal boundary laying across our CWA.
Locations north of I-70 have the best chance to remain dry all
day, and will also experience slightly lower temps and
dewpoints. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered storm develop still
possible throughout the day, particularly in the afternoon and
evening when we are near peak diurnal heating.

Boundary continues to lift north as a warm front Thursday
night. However, shower/storm coverage will become less extensive
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In westerly flow aloft, a weak mid level short wave will
progress east across the Ohio Valley later Friday afternoon into
Friday night. Some weak destabilization through the afternoon
on Friday will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
with a better chance overspreading the area heading into Friday
evening as the short wave moves in. Pcpn chances will then
diminish heading into Saturday as we get on the back side of the
short wave.

Another mid level short wave will lift northeast into the Ohio
Valley during the day on Sunday as a stronger secondary short
wave/mid level low pivots northeast out of the mid Mississippi
Valley and into the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday.
This will allow for an associated surface low to lift northeast
from the central Plains on Sunday into the central Great Lakes
through the day on Monday. Increasing moisture/forcing ahead of
this system will lead to developing showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and continuing into the day
on Monday. Given the strengthening wind fields and track of the
surface low, some severe storms will be possible, especially
later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

An upper level trough will eventually settle in across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through early to mid next
week. Additional embedded mid level short waves rotating through
the trough will keep some lingering chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term period.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend with
daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A more
seasonable airmass will then move into the region through early
to mid next week with daytime highs mostly in the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slow down and eventually lay out west to east
near the Ohio River by sunrise. Low level moisture ahead of the
front may bring a period of IFR/MVFR ceilings and some MVFR
visibilities. Winds will shift to the northwest/north, then
weaken and become light east/southeast during the morning hours.

For today, the frontal boundary will remain somewhat quasi-
stationary. An embedded mid level disturbance will ripple east
this morning, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
far southern locations (mainly along and south of the Ohio
River). For this afternoon, with daytime heating and the frontal
boundary in the vicinity of the region, along with another weak
mid level disturbance, will bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Predominate conditions will be VFR but lower
conditions (MVFR/IFR) could occur in thunderstorms. Winds will
become light southerly.

For tonight, convection in the evening will wane through the
night as mid level disturbance moves off to the east and
instability diminishes. Weak frontal boundary will begin to
slowly move north as a warm front. Models suggest that another
round of MVFR/IFR ceilings and perhaps visibilities may develop
between 06Z and 12Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Sunday.
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman