607
FXUS61 KILN 191054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
654 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms
returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for
showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
slightly cooler and drier conditions for the second half of the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the near term period,
with one exception being the chance for a rogue SHRA early this
morning on the wrn periphery of a weak midlevel vort lobe
pinwheeling about the ern OH Vly. This would be favored mainly
SE of I-71, but most spots remain dry.

The other potential for a stray SHRA may evolve very late in the
day in WC OH as a weak frontal boundary sags SE into the nrn OH
Vly early this evening and LL moisture pools along it. While
most of the convection associated with the front will stay to
the NW of the immediate ILN FA, suppose that a stray SHRA or
TSRA cannot be ruled out in Mercer/Auglaize/Hardin Counties in
the several hour period around sunset.

Otherwise, there will be some river valley fog to contend with
once again this morning, but nothing compared to the widespread
nature of the fog earlier Saturday morning. After the river
valley fog burns off a few hours into the daytime, abundant
sunshine is on tap as temps warm into the mid to even upper 80s.
This will be accompanied by some fair weather Cu in the
afternoon, but with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, it
will be a pleasant spring day for those hoping to catch some
time outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mostly quiet conditions continue into the short term period as
midlevel ridging briefly noses NE into the OH Vly tonight into
early Monday. A S/W moving across the far nrn OH Vly late
Monday afternoon/evening may provide /just/ enough forcing to
initiate some SHRA/TSRA across nrn stretches of the region. But
there are uncertainties in regards to how widespread, or how far
south, this activity will extend. Once again, do think that
most spots locally remain dry, but suppose that a stray late-
day storm couldn`t be ruled out, especially during the evening
N of I-70 where the best LL moisture (and instby) should become
established. Further to the S, meager instby should keep locales
near/S of the OH Rvr dry through the period.

Lows tonight dip into the lower 60s (with some upper 50s
expected in rural/valley/sheltered locales), with temps
rebounding once again Monday afternoon into the mid to upper
80s area-wide. Temps through the next 3 days will generally be
about 10 degrees above seasonal norms across the board.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Above normal temperatures will be present to start the extended
period and will persist in the southerly flow ahead of a cold
front through Wednesday. Latest guidance continues to delay
frontal passage until Wednesday night. With warm, humid
conditions and adequate upper level wind flow, some severe storm
threat will exist Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night.

Cooler weather arrives behind the front Thursday into Friday.
Uncertainty increases with the next frontal system shifting east
into the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Chance PoPs seems
reasonable as flow becomes southerly again and low level moisture
returns north into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After the BR/FG burns off/dissipates, VFR conditions will
resume area-wide by 13z. Some FEW/SCT VFR Cu will sprout about
by the afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected across the
W for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK. The Cu should linger a bit past sunset,
especially near KDAY, as a weak frontal boundary and a few SHRA
nudges closer in from the NW toward the end of the period.

Light/VRB winds will prevail through the period, going more out
of the NNE around 5kts during the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC