Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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337 FXUS61 KILN 231843 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 243 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the weekend before a stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A stalled frontal boundary is currently draped across the southern portions of our CWA. While fairly weak, it will help provide a source of lift for a relatively warm/humid, unstable air mass. Temperatures will not climb quite as high today, but upper 70s to near 80 degrees will be observed. CAMs suggest storm coverage may increase later this afternoon into the evening hours. This is likely in response to a subtle shortwave that ripples through southern portions of our CWA. Overall, solutions are quite different amongst hi-res models given the weak forcing in place, so will have to see how this environment responds to this source of energy. PoPs will be highest for southern OH and northern KY, but isolated shower/storm development will still become possible for areas further north towards the I-70 corridor. Not anticipating severe, but a few strong storms certainly possible with gusty winds and small hail. Shower/storm activity will gradually wane overnight. As this activity wanes, we will start to see some fog development given the saturated low levels and nearly calm surface winds. River valley fog will be most noticeable, but some overland fog also expected, especially across northern KY and portions of southern OH, particularly in the lower Scioto Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Stalled boundary across our CWA will begin to lift north as a warm front on Friday. As ILN gets placed more in the warm sector, surface temperatures and dewpoints will increase by a few degrees compared to Thursday. Given the northward progression of the boundary, the forecast is now trending drier through most of the daylight hours Friday given the lack of a forcing mechanism. While daytime conditions are favored to remain dry, models are displaying a shortwave feature rippling through the Upper Midwest later in the day Friday. This feature will spawn a MCS across the Upper Midwest region. This shortwave will propagate through the Great Lakes region Friday night, allowing for the MCS to progress eastward. CAMs are still a few hours off in terms of the potential timing of this complex to reach our CWA. An earlier arrival as suggested by the HRRR (closer to 8PM) could pose more of a potential severe threat, mainly straight- line winds. Will have to see how this complex progresses during the daytime to get a feel for any severe storm potential for our fa. Severe threat could linger into the beginning of Friday night, but the thought is that these storms will eventually become elevated, limiting severe potential. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front will push east across our area Saturday morning into early afternoon. This will lead to a lingering chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially across our eastern areas. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s. The front will sag off to our southeast Saturday night before beginning to lift back to the north as a warm front through the day on Sunday. This will be ahead of a low pressure system lifting northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley. There is still some uncertainty with the timing and how far north the warm front will make it through the day on Sunday, but good instability will develop off to our southwest through the day and advect/develop northeast into our area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This will lead to a developing chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread heading into Sunday night. With impressive wind/shear profiles across our area and a favorable synoptic setup, Sunday`s severe weather potential bears watching as all severe weather modes look to be in play. A secondary mid level short wave will push east across the Ohio Valley through the day on Monday, leading to a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low will then pivot down across the Great Lakes region through mid week. With some additional mid level energy rotating around the low, will hang on to some lingering chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures will settle into the area through mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For today, the cold frontal boundary will become quasi- stationary across the southern half of the region. An embedded mid level disturbance will ripple east this morning, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to far southern locations (mainly along and south of the Ohio River). For this afternoon, with daytime heating and the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the region, along with another weak mid level disturbance, will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Predominate conditions will be VFR but lower conditions (MVFR/IFR) could occur in thunderstorms. Winds will become light southerly. For tonight, convection in the evening will wane through the night as mid level disturbance moves off to the east and instability diminishes. Weak frontal boundary will begin to slowly move north as a warm front. Models suggest that IFR or lower conditions may develop, especially across southern terminals. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Monday. MVFR/IFR/LIFR/VLIFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Clark