Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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007 FXUS63 KIND 071744 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 144 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy today. - Chance of showers Saturday. - Near-average temps through midweek, then warming trend late next week. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A nice cu field has developed once again early this afternoon in the back side of the upper low moving east away from the Great Lakes. Skies were mostly clear further to the southwest under increasing influence from the upper ridge axis approaching. With winds occasionally gusting to around 35mph this afternoon...temps had risen into the 70s and low 80s. Northwest flow aloft will expand into the Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday wedged between a triple barrel upper low across Canada and upper ridging along the Gulf Coast. This will set the stage for multiple convective clusters tracking in tandem with waves aloft traversing through the mean flow. Much of central Indiana will be on the northern side of the track of the convective clusters...with an expected increase in clouds into the first half of the weekend and chances for rain Saturday morning with potentially isolated to scattered convection by the afternoon and evening. This Afternoon and Tonight The rest of today will be superb with the stronger wind gusts serving as the primary issue. As the upper ridge axis moves into the region late today...anticipate a slow but steady decrease in cu from the west along with a noticeable decline in wind gusts by this evening. Clearing will be short lived with high clouds expanding into the region from the west...then thickening and lowering towards daybreak Saturday as the convective cluster that develops in the Missouri Valley late tonight moves southeast towards the lower Ohio Valley. Could see rain slip into the lower Wabash Valley near or just after daybreak but most if not all of the rain should hold off until later in the morning. Saturday The most intense part of the convective cluster late tonight will remain displaced well to our southwest across Missouri and perhaps far southern Illinois by morning as a strong low level jet feeds moisture into an unstable environment. Further northeast across central Indiana...residual dry air left from the high pressure over the region today will cause moisture advection issues...particularly within the boundary layer as model soundings show very clearly a lack of deeper moisture below 700mb Saturday morning. The cluster will be in the process of weakening as it moves away from the low level jet and better instability with the most likely scenario locally being a weakening area of diminishing showers pressing across the southwest half of the forecast area through midday. Behind this feature...greater uncertainty exists through Saturday afternoon as flow turns southerly despite a warm front remaining to the southwest of the region. Weak energy aloft tracking through the mean flow will provide some forcing and model soundings do hint at subtle amounts of elevated instability with some heating but low level moisture remains somewhat problematic. Likely to see isolated to scattered convection develop as a result during the afternoon and evening. Temps...lows tonight will largely hold into the upper 50s and lower 60s as clouds increase. With limited sunshine on Saturday... expecting a cooler day with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s supported by low level thermals. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Saturday Night Through Sunday. Late Saturday night a secondary low behind the main low pressure system south of the Hudson Bay will push a cold front through the state Saturday night into Sunday with scattered light rain showers likely along with a complex of thunderstorms that looks more likely to remain closer to the Ohio River. There is good model agreement in the track of the storm complex with the front passage helping to ensure a more southerly component to the storms propagation. Little change in temperature is expected in the aftermath of the frontal passage for Sunday with a fairly warm airmass in the area behind the front. Skies are expected to gradually clear through the day as drier air erodes the residual moisture. Monday Through Friday. Robust northwesterly flow is expected then to dominate the weather pattern through the early portions of the week with gradually lower confidence in the forecast going towards the middle of the week as models begin to differ on the evolution of the next low pressure system. Confidence is highest in the below normal temperatures continuing to as far as Tuesday with dry weather, but towards Wednesday and Thursday rain chances begin to slowly ramp up with another potential closed low moving across the Great Lakes. This again remains very uncertain with numerous ensemble members keeping the pressure fields more zonal with dry weather. There is a potential to see the first widespread 90 degree day on Friday but there remains significant model spread towards Friday with the deterministic GFS and Euro models showing another cold frontal passage and temperatures in the 70s while some of their ensemble members are holding out on broad ridging and low 90s. Leaning more towards the latter on the forecast with thoughts that the models are breaking down the ridge too early and too far south with the better shot for the cold air arrival being later into the weekend and better chances for rain towards the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Impacts: - Wind gusts up to 30kts this afternoon - Low chances for showers Saturday morning...mainly at KBMG and KHUF Discussion: Cu has developed across the northeast half of central Indiana early this afternoon in closest proximity to the departing upper low. Expect cu coverage to diminish through late afternoon from the west as a ridge axis aloft moves into the region. W/NW winds will remain gusty through the rest of the afternoon...peaking up to 30kts at times before diminishing this evening. Focus then turns to convection developing in the Plains this evening which is expected to grow upscale into a complex before diving southeast towards the lower Ohio Valley and weakening Saturday morning. This will bring a steady increase in mid and high level cloud cover overnight with the potential for light showers to impact KBMG and KHUF after daybreak. Light showers will progress east through the morning but should largely dissipate as it runs into residual dry air. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...White AVIATION...Ryan