Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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815 FXUS63 KIND 180114 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 914 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/scattered showers this afternoon and evening with some thunder possible - Areas of fog again tonight - Warmer with Mid 80s Sunday into early next week - Increasing severe storm threat Tuesday night into Wednesday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 - Lingering showers/storms end - Partly Cloudy with Fog overnight Surface analysis late this evening shows weak area of high pressure over MI with disorganized southerly flow across Central Indiana. A weak boundary was found across northern parts of Central Indiana as a few late blooming showers or storms developed there this evening. GOES16 shows decreasing cloud cover across Central Indiana as diurnal cooling has begun. Water vapor imagery shows best moisture aloft across the area has shifted a bit farther east, stretching from Arkansas and LA to KY and SRN Indiana before reaching points in the northeast. Dew points across Central Indiana remained rather high, in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Little overall change is expected overnight with the ongoing weather pattern. Weak, poorly organized southerly flow looks to remain place as Indiana remains caught between two more organized area of low pressure, the first being over the northern plains and the second off the Atlantic Coast. Thus as heating is lost this evening clouds and any lingering showers/storms will continue to diminish. Light flow, clear skies and high dew points will be a recipe for fog. Models suggest dew point depressions to fall to 1-2F. Thus will expect patchy fog once again overnight, with areas of dense fog possible late. Lows will once again fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A positively-tilted trough axis is positioned northwest of us, and weak shortwave perturbations embedded within are evident in water vapor channel imagery passing through. The surface thermal, MSLP, and flow pattern is fairly nondiscript, but the low levels are quite moist. Even with clouds, only minimal surface diabatic heating will be needed for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon and evening. Movement will be slow given the weak midlevel flow (east- northeastward at around 5-10 mph). No displacement of the moist low level air mass and wet ground means that fog will once again be possible tonight, and probably over a broader area. The radiative component will be minimal but moisture magnitude should be enough for areas of fog, some of which could be dense. Since IVT shows the deeper rich moisture plume shifting east with the first perturbation, more widespread rain is not expected. Stratus may be prevalent until the upper-level trough axis passes midday Saturday, and isolated/scattered convection will be possible until then, though peaking with diurnal cycle. By Saturday`s diurnal peak the subsidence inversion will be strengthening and this should suppress most convection, though isolated coverage is still possible into the afternoon. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 The lower troposphere is expected to remain quite moist Saturday night despite slightly deeper mixing Saturday afternoon and a slight nudge of drier continental air. To offset this, moist ground, light winds, and clear skies should still result in at least some patchy fog. Our highest temperature at IND so far this season has been 85 (on May 2nd), and as ridging builds this weekend should cause us to reach or exceed this value. Mid-80s for highs are about 10-15 degrees above mid-May climo, and should continue into the first part of next week as western troughing deepens and ridging across the east continues to amplify. The aforementioned ridge/trough pattern will result in an increasingly active convective regime across the Plains this weekend into early next week. Flow is modest in our Region through early next week, and probably incapable of sustaining a consolidated area of convection this far east through Monday and into Tuesday, but this may occur Tuesday night. By then, medium range models indicate phasing and a stronger mid-latitude system moving northeastward from the Plains into the Great Lakes region. How quickly this system closes/occludes, and at what pace it moves northeastward is in question as ensemble spread is still relatively large. Rich moisture through a deep layer preceding this system is favored in this pattern and indicated in the models, and by Tuesday night and/or Wednesday thunderstorms appear likely. Mesoscale details will dictate timing and magnitude of the severe threat. Scenario #1 is an MCS Tuesday night or early Wednesday which may decrease with the diurnal cycle, and scenario #2 with a more lagging system and/or second subsequent shortwave trough (as is indicated but a subset of GEFS members) which may lead to convection forced along the front during the diurnal cycle Wednesday over central Indiana. Sufficient instability and deep layer shear overlap are indicated to support organized thunderstorms and a severe threat in either case. Ensemble upper-end QPF outliers generally indicate limited flood threat with this first system owing to its quicker progression. It looks like continental air may nudge down to around the Ohio River at least briefly Thursday in the wake of the aforementioned system but should readily return shortly thereafter in response to the next system in the westerlies. But, timing of this system and its interaction with a moist/unstable environment for additional convection is uncertain, since ensemble spread grows considerably by this time period. Day 8-14: Early indications for the weekend of the 25th and subsequent week are for a continued synoptically-active period with near or just above normal temperatures. There are indications of a progressive short wavelength pattern, albeit not particularly amplified, which should bringing periodic chances for convection and associated hazards. Ensemble data generally shows positive precipitation anomalies during this period. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 630 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Impacts: - Isolated showers through early evening - Areas of fog and IFR or lower visibility tonight Discussion: Radar this evening shows isolated convection south of Bloomington. Other convection north of the TAF sites was diminishing. As diurnal heating is lost this evening, these remaining diurnal storms will continue to dissipate. Thus have used a VCTS at BMG to account for this. Overnight, mostly clear skies and light winds are expected and dew point depressions are expected to once again fall to 1-2F. This should once again lead to IFR to LIFR conditions at the outlier TAf sites. Once diurnal heating begins again on Saturday, any fog will quickly burn off and sct-bkn diurnal CU is expected. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Puma SHORT TERM...BRB LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...Puma