Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251836
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

High pressure will generally remain over the area through the
middle parts of the week. A frontal system may affect the area
during the latter portions of the week, around Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Widely scattered convection expected to continue across the area
throughout the afternoon and into the early evening hours, given a
weakly capped and unstable air mass. Convection expected to
dissipate within a few hours after sunset, due to loss of heating
and lack of any kind of focus. As a result, will keep some PoPs
going into the late evening hours and cut them off after that.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS guidance lows tonight look
good, so little if any adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Model data suggest an upper low will cutoff over the southern Plains
over the next couple of days. This upper low may tend to drift
northeast by Thursday, as a northern stream trough moves into the
northern Midwest.

At this time, nothing really stands out for an organized convective
focus, until late in the short term when the northern stream trough
and surface front approches. However, an unstable and weakly capped
air mass does suggest the potential for diurnally driven convection,
or convective development associated with small disturbances coming
up from the south that are not discernible at this time. Localized
heavy rainfall possible with any deeper convection, given
precipitable waters around 1.50-1.70 inches.

For now, will continue to broadbrush PoPs throughout the short term
period.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS
temperature guidance over the next couple of days. Any adjustments
will be minor.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

12z GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a cold front that will move
through central Indiana on Friday as an upper trough in the northern
jet stream pivots across the Great Lakes. This will bring mostly dry
weather and seasonable temperatures for the weekend per the National
Blend.

Look for widespread convection along and ahead of the cold front
through Friday as the front interacts with a very warm, moist and
unstable air mass.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 25/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Radar trends were showing there were not any thunderstorms near the
terminals. However, potential is there and most likely time
convection would be from 20z-01z. So, left in VCTS for that time
frame.

GFS LAMP and SREF lend good confidence in VFR flying conditions save
brief MVFR or worse in thunderstorms.

Winds will vary between 150 and 210 degrees less than 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK


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