Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A cold front will move south of the Ohio River today. Then, high
pressure will gradually build in from the Plains. This will provide
dry weather with below normal temperatures this week. Temperatures
will then rebound over the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A cold front across south central Indiana will gradually move south
today as an upper trough approaches from the western Great Lakes.
Would not rule out a few lingering showers and thunderstorms, mainly
south and early in closer proximity to the departing front.
Otherwise, model rh time sections and satellite suggest the skies
will gradually clear from northwest to southeast late today and

With cold and dry advection, look for afternoon temperatures to only
reach the upper 70s today per the blend and nearly 10 degrees below
normal. The mercury will then drop all the way down to the middle
and upper 50s tonight.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Models in good agreement that Canadian high pressure, currently over
the Plains, will move over central Indiana Wednesday and Wednesday.
This combined with a dry column will result in plenty of sunshine
and gradually moderating but yet below normal temperatures.

Confidence is good regarding the blend temperature trends.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

After an extended period of benign weather with pleasant
temperatures and abundant sunshine, it does appear the trough
providing this stretch of beautiful weather will be pivoting east
of the Ohio Valley with mid-level heights on the rise late in the
week. This will allow a thermal ridge aloft to advect north and
pump additional heat into the region. Given the stretch of dry
weather early in the week, expect the surface to easily realize
this warmth and see large diurnal temp swing in the afternoon with
temps returning to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by late
week. While temps will be on the rise, one positive with this
warmth will be the lack of high moisture content air like the
recent heat wave. This should allow for more pleasant conditions.

In addition to the steady and gradual warming extended forecast,
guidance continues to indicate with good agreement that the dry
stretch will persist with anti-cyclonic flow aloft providing
minimal cloud cover at least through Sunday. Then progressing into
early next week guidance points towards another trough axis
pivoting east of the Rockies towards the Mid-Missouri Valley and
should bring the next good chance for precipitation early next


.AVIATION /Discussion for 22/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

MVFR ceilings over the next several hours with VFR conditions
expected afterwards.

A few lingering showers are expected over the next several hours
as residual moisture from the cold front exits the area. By 18Z
rain will have ended at HUF and LAF with rain ending shortly
elsewhere. The low clouds that brought the IFR and MVFR ceilings
have begun to dissipate and any remaining low clouds are expected
to be gone in the next couple of hours with the high clouds moving
out by 0Z. Winds will be out of the north at 7-12 kts and will
weaken to 4-6 kts after 0Z with mostly clear skies and dry
conditions through the rest of the period.




LONG TERM....Beach
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