Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201414
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1014 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

An upper level system along with a couple of surface fronts will
bring rain to central Indiana today into tonight. A cold front and a
surface low pressure system will bring more rain chances Sunday into
early next work week. Otherwise dry conditions can be expected.
Below normal temperatures will continue through much of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Area of rain currently approaching the western border zones
expected to continue moving into the area over the next few hours.
Short term model guidance suggests this area of rain may tend to
diminish as it moves east, with additional areas of rain
developing more towards the mid to late afternoon hours.

Current forecast still has a good handle on things. Highs today
may be a little warm, based on expected cloud cover and
precipitation, but low level thicknesses support the current
forecast. Will leave the highs alone for now and monitor.

Only changes made on the update were some minor adjustments to the
winds for the rest of the day, based on current observations.

Previous discussion follows.

A couple of upper level systems will move into the area before
phasing tonight. A couple of surface systems will also move into the
area with the upper systems. The systems will have adequate moisture
to work with.

The first system will have a decent low level jet and isentropic
forcing. Thus will go likely or higher PoPs across the northwest
half or so of the forecast area this morning. However, forcing from
this system will weaken and move out of the area early this
afternoon, and PoPs will thus lower as this occurs.

Forcing from the next upper system includes some frontogenetic
forcing developing across the eastern and southeastern forecast
areas later this afternoon into this evening. The result will be
PoPs ramping back up into likely category or higher late this
afternoon and through the evening.

PoPs will lower overnight as forcing weakens, but they will stick
around through the night as a weaker surface front moves through.

Temperatures will remain warm enough through the period for
precipitation to remain rain.

With clouds and rain around, the model blend looks reasonable for
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The upper trough will be exiting the area Thursday morning, so kept
some slight chance PoPs far east then. Low level moisture will stick
around through the day, and cold air will be moving in aloft. Thus
feel clouds will stick around longer than the blend suggests. Kept
skies at least mostly cloudy most areas into mid to late afternoon.

An upper low will move into the northeastern USA on Friday and give
the area a glancing blow. Not expecting much in the way of moisture
or forcing, so kept the area dry for the remainder of the short term
period.

However, the upper low will bring in another shot of colder air into
the area, keeping temperatures below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Models indicate a typically progressive pattern across the U.S. during
this period as there will be one deep vortex over the northeast
U.S, a shortwave trough over the Intermountain Region, and another
trough that is entering the northwestern U.S. What makee the long
range forecast challenging is that the deep vortex low over the
northeast will be slow to move out, so timing of precipitation for
Sunday and Monday is going to be of marginal confidence at this
time.

As it stands right now, models bring rain into central Indiana Sunday
afternoon associated with the system that will start out in the
central Intermountain region and move through the Ohio Valley
through Monday. Type of precipitation will also be a challenge as
there could be some snow mixed with the rain during the early
half of Monday.

Temperatures look to be around normal for this time in March as
highs will be in the mid-upper 40s and lows in the mid 30s, then
down into the upper 20s toward the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 201500Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Short term model data suggest areas of light rain will be
developing at or in the vicinity of the KIND terminal towards the
midday hours and on into the afternoon. At this time, it appears
visibility impacts will be minimal.

Ceilings may fall into the 025-030 range after 202200Z.

Previous discussion follows.

IFR conditions currently across all TAF sites. Low pressure over
MO will lower conditions to MVFR after mid morning as -RA spreads
across central IN. Possibility there could be brief IFR/LIFR this
afternoon. Expect mostly MVFR conditions through tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM/JAS


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