Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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852 FXUS63 KIWX 091726 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 126 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool Monday with highs near 70, much warmer by Thursday with highs approaching 90. - Becoming hot and humid late this coming weekend. - Mainly dry this upcoming week; chances for storms Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers have moved east out of the forecast area. Chilly air behind a weak upper level system and associated cold front will spread south out of Canada to start the work week. 850 mb temperatures Monday may drop all of the way down to +3C per GFS. The latest model guidance favors lows well down into the 40s by Tuesday morning. Return flow around a large surface high will begin Tuesday and eventually allow highs to recover well into the 80s Thursday. For later this upcoming week, the challenges include timing of a (weak) cold front and subsequent chances for showers & storms. In the broader picture, the best window for activity should be open from early Thursday into Friday. Max CAPE values per GFS range from 1000 J/Kg to 2000 J/Kg. Given modest CAPE, bulk shear and precipitable water values, these environment factors favor gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with unorganized storms. However, if an upstream convective develops into a MCS and moves into the area, stronger winds would be favored. Confidence is low for storms on Friday given the likelihood the front will be south of the area and best chances for storms will likely be in the higher theta E in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise, the upcoming weekend should be dry. GFS and ECMWF 850 mb temperatures near 20C favor highs near 90 Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The passage of a cold frontal boundary brought times of low visibility and stratus this morning. We`ll continue to be in a cold advection regime behind this front through the forecast period. One additional cold frontal boundary moves through Monday in a similar time to this morning`s and could allow for another period of what appears to be more of a stratus-conducive environment with sustained winds forecast to be greater than 5kts Monday morning. Early projections look like MVFR CIGs will be in play with near 30 percent chances on the SREF at SBN and to some extent at FWA as well. There`s also some question how long these can continue into the daytime Monday after today`s dissipated around sunrise. Aviation guidance still wants to hold onto the CIGs later than that. Wind gusts could increase again Monday midday, but may not be as strong as they are expected to be into this evening with a weaker low level jet. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM EDT this evening through Monday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Roller