Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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410 FXUS63 KIWX 310510 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 110 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably warm conditions to dominate through Friday night. - A period of showers and isolated storms is expected Saturday afternoon and evening, with severe weather not expected. - Summer-like temperatures and humidity will bring increasing chances of showers and storms for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 No weather concerns for the next 36 to 48 hours as high pressure dominates, with plenty of sunshine and slowly moderating temperatures. A weak southern stream disturbance is still expected to move from the SW US into the Ohio Valley Saturday, bringing an increase in low level moisture (PWATs pushing 1.5") and lift. Scattered to possibly numerous showers and a few storms still appear on track, with a Sat AM arrival depicted by a few of the hi res models, but greater consensus fro the afternoon and evening hours. Poor shear profiles, MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG and paltry lapse rates all point towards no severe threat, but locally heavy rain would be possible. Slightly drier air arrives for Sunday into early Monday, before a deepening northern stream trough begins to take shape bringing a more unsettled pattern through at least mid week. Another disturbance arrives late Mon into Monday night with chances for a few showers/storms with it. This feature will bring low to mid 60 dewpoints to the area, setting the stage for much better chances for showers and storms by the middle of next week as the northern stream trough deepens with the closed upper low reaching the western Great Lakes by 00Z Thu. Some differences in timing and also extent of digging with the trough and subsequent position of the upper low. Suffice to say, looks like a wet mid week with temperatures eventually trending back below normal in the wake of the system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR assured through the period with subsidence and dry air remaining over the Great Lakes. Light SE winds expected Friday as ridge axis shifts east with some increasing high clouds late Friday as next trough approaches. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...AGD