759
FXUS64 KJAN 190533 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The potential for any severe storms in our CWA has ended and the
probability of any measurable rain was coming to an end as well.
Local radars had a few very light showers over eastern Clarke
county and back to the west across southern Scott county. These
light showers were along a nearly diffuse cold front that will
continue to sag south of Interstate 20 and near Highway 84 the
remainder of tonight. Some patchy fog may develop across our
southeast as a result. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The rest of today through tomorrow: Radar imagery shows mostly
showers and some storms developing in the Golden Triangle Region
this afternoon. A boundary associated with a low pressure moving
eastwards across the MS/AL line is enabling storm development and
will continue through the late afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis shows
an estimated 2000 - 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and low level lapse rates
between 6.5 -7 C/km, which has allowed for some strong shallow
updrafts to develop so far this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates
continue to be lackluster, which will make it difficult for any
deep cores to develop through the remainder of the evening.
Despite this, a Marginal Risk (1/5) will continue through the late
evening with the main risks being isolated severe storms with
hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. By
tonight, rain chances are expected to diminish and maintain a dry
overnight period. in the southeast, lingering moisture is expected
to generate some patchy fog across the Pine Belt, but diminish by
daybreak.

On Sunday, drier conditions look to prevail as an upper trough
ejects out of the Southeast region onto the eastern coast. Deep
ridging will begin to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
allowing for temperatures to increase and cloud cover to dissipate.
Sunday highs look to be in the upper 80s to near 90, with mostly
sunny skies across the region. /AJ/

Next week...

Early-midweek (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level ridge amplifies
over the Bay of Campeche & Mexico, the low-level ridge axis is
progged to build across the area through mid-week. Sfc high pressure
is progged to build across the region, with an active upper level
jet ejecting across the Central Plains. This will drive a strong low
pressure system out of the Plains into the Mid West to Great Lakes.
A dry pattern is progged to persist through early week, with
increased warm advection/low-level temps into the upper teens to low
20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to
seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s southeast
of the Natchez Trace to low 70s to the northwest. Heat & humidity
will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into
mid-upper 90s, but heat stress shouldn`t be much of an issue. Low-
level return flow won`t pick back up until by midday Tuesday through
midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around late
Wednesday aftn to evening, mainly northwest of the Natchez Trace.

Late week (Thursday-Friday): As the trough swings into the Great
Lakes to Hudson Bay, expect the ridge axis to relax & gradual height
falls to occur across the Gulf Coast region. This keep continued
heat & humidity but increased scattered rain & storm chances to
build into the region from the north. During this time, there could
be enough westerly zonal flow for some organized convective & strong-
severe potential into late week. There are some indications in long
term convective outlooks & CSU machine learning probs for some
isolated strong-severe potential, but this remains too far in the
extended timeframe to introduce in HWO graphics for now. Seasonably
warm conditions in low 90s on Wednesday will tamper down into the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees south of I-20 by late week. Heat &
humidity will be slightly less oppressive but still heat indices in
the low-mid 90s, with less potential for heat stress. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. During
the morning hours, MVFR/IFR flight conditions will be possible at
GTR, PIB, HBG, and MEI due to possible fog development in eastern
portions of the area. After sunrise, flight conditions will return
to VFR to end the TAF period. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  66  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      88  64  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     89  68  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       89  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    89  70  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     89  68  91  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/DC/SW