299
FXUS64 KJAN 181944
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
244 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The rest of today through tomorrow...

Radar imagery shows mostly showers and some storms developing in the
Golden Triangle Region this afternoon. A boundary associated with a
low pressure moving eastwards across the MS/AL line is enabling
storm development and will continue through the late afternoon. RAP
mesoanalysis shows an estimated 2000 - 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and low
level lapse rates between 6.5 -7 C/km, which has allowed for some
strong shallow updrafts to develop so far this afternoon. Mid-level
lapse rates continue to be lackluster, which will make it difficult
for any deep cores to develop through the remainder of the evening.
Despite this, a Marginal Risk (1/5) will continue through the late
evening with the main risks being isolated severe storms with hail
up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. By tonight,
rain chances are expected to diminish and maintain a dry overnight
period. in the southeast, lingering moisture is expected to generate
some patchy fog across the Pine Belt, but diminish by daybreak.

On Sunday, drier conditions look to prevail as an upper trough
ejects out of the Southeast region onto the eastern coast. Deep
ridging will begin to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
allowing for temperatures to increase and cloud cover to dissipate.
Sunday highs look to be in the upper 80s to near 90, with mostly
sunny skies across the region. /AJ/

Next week...

Early-midweek (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level ridge amplifies
over the Bay of Campeche & Mexico, the low-level ridge axis is
progged to build across the area through mid-week. Sfc high pressure
is progged to build across the region, with an active upper level
jet ejecting across the Central Plains. This will drive a strong low
pressure system out of the Plains into the Mid West to Great Lakes.
A dry pattern is progged to persist through early week, with
increased warm advection/low-level temps into the upper teens to low
20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to moderate to
seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s southeast
of the Natchez Trace to low 70s to the northwest. Heat & humidity
will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices climbing into
mid-upper 90s, but heat stress shouldn`t be much of an issue. Low-
level return flow won`t pick back up until by midday Tuesday through
midweek, with rain & storm chances picking back up around late
Wednesday aftn to evening, mainly northwest of the Natchez Trace.

Late week (Thursday-Friday): As the trough swings into the Great
Lakes to Hudson Bay, expect the ridge axis to relax & gradual height
falls to occur across the Gulf Coast region. This keep continued
heat & humidity but increased scattered rain & storm chances to
build into the region from the north. During this time, there could
be enough westerly zonal flow for some organized convective & strong-
severe potential into late week. There are some indications in long
term convective outlooks & CSU machine learning probs for some
isolated strong-severe potential, but this remains too far in the
extended timeframe to introduce in HWO graphics for now. Seasonably
warm conditions in low 90s on Wednesday will tamper down into the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees south of I-20 by late week. Heat &
humidity will be slightly less oppressive but still heat indices in
the low-mid 90s, with less potential for heat stress. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected across sites this afternoon as an
upper trough moves east of the region, improving cigs. By 18Z, iso
VCSH/VCTS could impact GWO/GTR/MEI and briefly decrease vis and
cigs, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. By 10Z, BR/FG will be
possible at HBG/PIB, but conditions are expected to improve by
13Z. /AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  87  66  89 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      64  88  64  90 /  20  10   0   0
Vicksburg     67  89  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  89  66  91 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       66  89  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    67  89  70  91 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     65  89  68  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/DC/AJ