633
FXUS64 KJAN 132000
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Not much to talk about for the short term period. Quiet and dry
weather conditions will persist tonight across the forecast area due
to sfc high pressure ridging and dry northerly flow aloft. Skies
will be generally clear heading into the overnight period allowing
for radiational cooling to occur. Because of this, overnight lows
will dip into the mid 60s across the area. Similar conditions are
expected tomorrow as sfc high pressure ridging continues to prevail
across the southeast US. The combination of clear skies and
sufficient daytime heating will afternoon highs peak into the mid
90s across the forecast area. /CR/

Saturday Through Next Thursday:

Increasingly hot temps are in the forecast for the weekend, with
temps nearing record highs. A H5 592 dm ridge will be firmly
entrenched over southeastern CONUS through the weekend. Under the
high pressure, the dry airmass will warm into the 97 - 101 degree
range. Heat indices are expected to be nearing 105 degrees thus a
limited threat for increasing heat stress has been added to the HWO
for this weekend. While temps will remain hot there is some
variability on Saturday, possible lower dewpoints in the area which
would cause lower heat indices a few degrees mitigating the heat
threat. Sunday moisture will increase across our southern counties
as low level flow increases and shifts to become southerly causing
heat indices to be higher Sunday. In the even this happens increased
moisture will limit high temps in the south by a few degrees.

Sunday high pressure begins to shift eastward leaving room for there
to be a chance for some isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
in the south. The increased moisture, high temps nearing 100 degrees
combined with high pressure shift and a wave pushing across will
give way to potential for rain and storms to be along and south of
HWy-84. Northern portions of the area will remain under the
influence of high pressure as it moves eastward leading to a drier
airmass.

Monday through Thursday will have the possibility for rain and
storms each afternoon. A tropical airmass will continue to track
north into our area through next week. This will lead to increased
southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico increasing moisture in the
area with PWATs nearing 2in. Through the long term there is a near
40 percent chance that a area of low pressure will form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and transition into a tropical
depression, however the system looks to track westward across
Mexico. It is unlikely that our area sees any impacts./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Quiet weather conditions will occur through the TAF period with
VFR ceilings prevailing. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  94  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      66  96  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     65  94  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   68  97  72  99 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       66  93  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    67  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     66  95  72  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/KP/