Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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170 FXUS64 KJAN 281559 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1059 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A dry airmass (e.g., JAN 12z RAOB precipitable water 0.87") is in place over most of the forecast area this morning, but there is a sharp moisture/instability gradient over southwest portions of the area in closer proximity to the NW-SE oriented frontal boundary to our southwest. A large convective system over the east TX/wrn LA has defied much of the CAM guidance thus far with it`s eastward extent and intensity, but it will struggle to make it much farther east into what is a harsh environment for deep convection. For now have had to increase rain chances some over western areas based on trends, but will maintain the current small marginal risk area for now in NE LA/SW MS, and will further assess the need for it early this afternoon as convection continues to evolve. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a stalled front from just south of our southeast most zones extending west northwest back into central Texas. North of this boundary a >1017mb ridge was northwest to southeast across our CWA. A relatively dry airmass with PWATs less than an inch and a quarter per the 00Z Tue JAN sounding resided over our CWA and the surface ridge is expected to help limit the return of low level moisture today. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our region at the base of a broad upper level trough resulting in northwest flow aloft across our CWA. Disturbances within the northwest flow will combine with daytime heating and the stalled boundary to develop vigorous convection to our west. By late afternoon some of this convection may spread into our western most zones and produce a threat of damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size. This threat is expected to last into the evening but wain with the loss of daytime heating. The eastern half of our CWA will remain dry. Late this evening there will likely be a lull in convection but model consensus suggests rain chances will return to our western most zones prior to sunrise. This activity is not expected to be severe. Temperatures will top out warmer than normal again today and mainly in the lower 90s. /22/ Wednesday through next Tuesday... By Wednesday a mid-level shortwave will bring the chance for isolated to scattered storms across the western and central portions of the forecast area. This system seems to be short lived with QPF return less than 1/4". Luckily, this shortwave is expected to bring in a cooler airmass, which will allow for highs in the lower to upper 80s and lows in the 60s through the weekend. The remainder of the week look to have isolated to scattered chances of showers in storms, primarily in the west, due to mainly weak low- level shortwaves. The next best chance for precipitation looks to be on Friday through the weekend as a stronger shortwave moves across the southeast region, which will generate scattered showers and storms areawide. By Sunday into Tuesday, temperatures will begin warming up again and isolated diurnal showers and storms are expected in the afternoon hours. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF period. Isold SHRA/TSRA may come in vcty of HEZ this aftn/evng. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 68 87 67 / 10 10 30 20 Meridian 92 66 89 66 / 0 10 20 20 Vicksburg 89 69 85 67 / 20 20 30 20 Hattiesburg 93 69 90 68 / 0 10 20 10 Natchez 88 69 86 67 / 40 30 30 20 Greenville 90 70 84 68 / 10 20 40 20 Greenwood 90 68 85 66 / 0 10 30 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/AJ/EC