077
FXUS64 KJAN 060557
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1257 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Low pressure is noted over the area on satellite tonight and a
thermal trough is also noted over eastern parts of the area. The
ascent coupled with locally steeper lapse rates will keep the
chance for isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tonight. A
couple of popup showers are noted in the vicinity of the I-59
corridor near Quitman and are anchored on a remnant outflow
boundary beneath this area of enhanced lift. Furthermore, CAMs
suggest there could be redevelopment of more scattered convection
in this area over the next few hours, which fits given the
aforementioned features./SAS/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Tonight through Thursday...

Expect majority of activity to wind down after 8-10PM, but a few
could linger as late as midnight. As the shortwave trough digs
southeast over the Gulf Coast, expect this to become somewhat cutoff
from the main deep layer trough/cold core over the northern Great
Lakes into south-central Canada. This will pattern will finally
begin to scour out some of the deep layer moisture & promote more
active subsidence & decreased lapse rates overnight & into Thursday.
Expect a downtrend in rain/storm chances, with chances clearing out
of the Delta into the evening hours, Natchez Trace around midnight &
potentially persisting into the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors through
daybreak through around midday Thursday. A few stronger storms can`t
be ruled out in the I-59 corridor but less probs for severe than
recently. Expect seasonably warm lows in the upper 60s east of I-55
to low 70s west of I-55 while more seasonable highs in the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees. With some aftn mixing & dewpoints falling from
northwest to southeast into Thursday, expect somewhat less
heat/humidity & heat stress to be a little less oppressive. /DC/

Thursday Night through Wednesday...

Storm chances will come to an end Thursday night as a cold front
continues to push south across central MS. Quiet conditions will
continue on Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out in
the vicinity of the Hwy 84 corridor. Heading into Saturday,
afternoon global guidance highlights a sfc high pressure settling
into much of the area. Drier air aloft will help suppress storm
chances across most of central MS. Later on Sunday morning, the sfc
high will start to shift east out of the area allowing for moisture
to recover. A shortwave trough will push across the midsouth by
Sunday afternoon/evening increasing rain and storm chances. Several
long term models are hinting at organized convection due to
increased flow around this timeframe which could bring several
strong storms across the area, but forecast confidence on overall
evolution is low at this time. We will continue to monitor trends
and will provide updates as we get closer to the event.

Heading into the start of the new work week, a seasonally anomalous
trough will dig south across the eastern CONUS as a frontal boundary
stalls over the southeast US. This stalled frontal boundary will
help keep rain chances to a minimum through the mid-week across much
of the forecast area. Because of this, the chances for scattered to
isolated showers and storms will be possible mainly for areas along
and south of the I-20 corridor. Shower activity will continue
heading into Wednesday as the frontal boundary shifts further south
towards the Gulf Coast. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR and MVFR conditions are being observed, with some stratus
beginning to build in where rain was observed yesterday. Stratus
should continue to build, mostly in the southeast this morning and
will briefly drop ceilings to MVFR/IFR before lifting by mid
morning. Isolated to scattered showers are possible tonight into
early this morning for eastern sites. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, beginning around
19z for southeastern sites. Winds will generally be from the west
around 5mph./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  69  88  64 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      89  69  90  63 /  30   0   0   0
Vicksburg     89  69  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  71  94  65 /  50   0   0   0
Natchez       89  69  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    90  71  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     89  69  88  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/CR/SAS20