602
FXUS64 KJAN 290229
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
929 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Water vapor/RAP/00Z observations indicate synoptic large scale
troughing across the Mid-West to Great Lakes & gradually pulling
off to the northeast. Sfc analysis indicates the front is now
situated along the Gulf Coast, with any earlier convection gone.
Northwesterly flow persist, but there has been some moistening
over the last 24 hours, while some progged decrease aloft into
the overnight hours. Clouds will thin overnight before increased
moist ascent from shortwave moves into the ArkLaTex. This will
help high cirrus to spread back over the region near or just
after daybreak. Light winds will aid in another seasonable night
with lows in the mid-upper 60s, with cool spots in the Hwy 25
corridor potentially 63-65 degree F range. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Through Wednesday: Most deep convection is bypassing the forecast
area well to the west and south this afternoon as noted in the
previous discussion, and have gone ahead and removed the messaging
for any severe threat in the Natchez area for the remainder of
today. There could be some light rain and perhaps a lightning
strike or two that impacts far southern portions of NE LA until
early evening, but otherwise most of the area will be rain and
storm free as we go through tonight.

For Wednesday, we may see great threat for storms, especially over
western portions of the area. Most guidance show that a
significant mid level perturbation will cross the area in the
aftn/evening, and this will likely increase moisture transport and
eventual storm development. Mid/upper level flow and lapse rates
should be sufficient for a few intense storms to organize, and SPC
has included western portions of the area in a marginal risk. Have
gone ahead and messaged this in the HWO graphics. If some of the
more pronounced guidance verifies, this risk area may be expanded
and increased some, but confidence won`t be great until we can
actually realize the moisture increase. /EC/

Wednesday night through Tuesday: The long term will be dominated
by continuous chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms
almost everyday of the period. Active westerlies over the Southern
Plains will extend into our forecast area as a surface boundary
remains to our west/southwest. As rounds of shortwave energy
interact with sufficient instability and a surface boundary, we
can expect to see mostly sub-severe storms crossing the area. By
Friday and Saturday, a stronger shortwave is expected to move
through the area bringing increased chances for showers and storms
areawide. Sunday through Tuesday temperatures and moisture will
begin to increase as low-level flow increases bringing additional
chances for afternoon showers and storms across the area. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR flight categories with light & variable winds, less than
10mph, are expected through the period the next 24 hours. Primary
concern for low probs of light SHRA or TSRA will come Wednesday
aftn to evening, mainly after 29/20-22Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  88  67  85 /  10  40  30  40
Meridian      65  90  66  86 /   0  20  20  30
Vicksburg     69  88  68  84 /  10  40  40  40
Hattiesburg   69  93  69  89 /  10  30  20  30
Natchez       69  88  67  84 /  10  40  30  50
Greenville    69  87  68  82 /   0  40  40  40
Greenwood     67  88  66  82 /   0  40  30  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP/DC