Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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062 FXUS64 KJAN 271111 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 611 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Today and tonight... A line of thunderstorms will continue to push southeast across the forecast area until mid-afternoon. Unstable air and sufficient CAPE will continue to fuel a linear convective system and produce damaging winds, hail up to golf ball size, and a tornado can`t be ruled out although conditions are expected to deteriorate the potential for tornado formation. A Marginal Risk (1/5) will continue to exist until the mid-morning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for northern and western portion of the CWA until 8AM. By the late morning, showers and storms are expected to clear out as stable air moves in. Temperatures should heat up into the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. This is expected to destabilize the atmosphere enough for an isolated potential of severe storms for a few hours this afternoon. Guidance is struggling to capture the magnitude of this severe risk but hints at some storm development near coast and northwards into Hwy 84 corridor. Confidence is fairly low, but if conditions favor development, a decent core can develop during peak heating hours. Due to this a Marginal (1/5) risk is outlooked for this afternoon, mainly before 7 pm. By tonight, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with lows in the middle to upper 60s. /AJ/ Tuesday through next Monday... The extended period begins with a building ridge extending from southwest Canada to to the Texas Panhandle, while a low pressure system swings across the Mid-West into the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions. At the lower levels, the Lower Mississippi Valley is progged to be wedged just west of the elongated east coast trough, which will enable northwesterly dry flow into the region. This will promote a hot and dry airmass maximizing over the ArkLaMiss region on Tuesday. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s, while heat indices climb into the lower to upper 90s. By Wednesday a mid-level shortwave will bring the chance for isolated to scattered storms across the western and central portions of the forecast area. This system seems to be short lived with QPF return less than 1/4". Luckily, this shortwave is expected to bring in a cooler airmass, which will allow for highs in the lower to upper 80s and lows in the 60s through the weekend. The remainder of the week look to have isolated to scattered chances of showers in storms, primarily in the west, due to mainly weak low- level shortwaves. The next best chance for precipitation looks to be on Saturday as a stronger shortwave moves across the southeast region, which will generate scattered showers and storms areawide. By Sunday and Monday, temperatures will begin warming up again and isolated diurnal showers and storms are expected in the afternoon hours. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR for HBG/PIB by 15Z as cigs clear from the northwest. VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. /AJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 68 91 68 / 20 0 10 10 Meridian 93 66 93 66 / 60 10 0 0 Vicksburg 94 69 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 94 70 95 68 / 50 10 10 10 Natchez 93 70 93 68 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 91 69 91 69 / 10 0 10 10 Greenwood 91 67 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ AJ/AJ/AJ