444
FXUS64 KJAN 251459 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
959 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Early morning showers across parts of north MS have largely
tapered off with the passage of a mid level disturbance, leaving
a clean sweep on the radar scope for the time being. However, the
cloud debris from the morning activity may help establish a
differential heating boundary across the area from around the
AR/LA state line eastward across northern portions of central MS.
This along with any remnant outflows and generally higher
dewpoints due to lesser mixing, will provide an opportunity for
the redevelopment of scattered diurnally driven convection mainly
this afternoon with the greatest focus within the aforementioned
area north of I-20. Given moderate to strong instability and
marginally strong deep layer shear, isolated severe storms will be
possible within this activity with the potential for damaging wind
gusts and 1" hail. Further south, forcing is much more
questionable, but we can`t rule out an isolated cell or two this
afternoon. PoPs/timing for today were updated to reflect this
thinking. No other noteworthy changes are planned at this time.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Today and tonight: Local radars were still lit up early this morning
with storms tracking east generally between Interstate 20 and
Highway 82. There were additional storms noted over southeast
Arkansas that will be tracking east along and north of Highway 82.
None of the convection was currently strong or severe but the
potential for isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
and hail to quarter size will remain possible today especially as
daytime heating kicks in. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP
analysis showed several weak disturbances tracking east across our
region downstream of a deepening trough over the western CONUS. A
nearly stacked low was also noted spinning over northern Minnesota
and the Canadian border with an associated cold front approaching
our northwest most zones. Surface analysis had a ridge along the
northern Gulf from the east. Several models show the convection
ending this morning as the most significant shortwaves shift east of
Mississippi. Consensus remains though that with daytime heating of
our warm moist airmass redevelopment will be aided by additional
subtle waves and the approaching weak cold front that will likely
stall north of our CWA by this evening. The higher rain chances
across the north will likely hold afternoon highs in the upper 80s
while the southern half of the CWA tops out in the lower 90s again.
There may be a few lingering storms in the northeast early this
evening but dry weather is expected well before midnight. The
increased moisture and residual cloud cover will help keep morning
lows above normal. /22/

Sunday through Saturday...

Weather conditions will be quiet through Sunday afternoon as early
morning model guidance highlight a 996 mb low pressure system in the
Central Plains propagating northeast towards the Great Lakes. As the
aforementioned sfc low shifts towards the northeast, a cold front
will approach the area from the northwest and will push southeast
towards central MS by Sunday evening as the warm sector is enhanced.
With our CWA being enhanced by the warm sector, any storms that
manage to form along and ahead of the approaching cold front will
have the chance to become severe. Primary hazards with these storms
will be damaging wind gusts, and hail up to golf ball size. No
changes have been made to the severe graphic for Sunday night. Model
consensus are in better alignment with each other in regards to the
timing of this system, with the best severe potential starting a
little after 9 PM Sunday evening through around daybreak Monday
morning. Heading into Monday evening, an additional round of strong
to severe thunderstorms will occur across the area as the cold front
tracks southeast across the area. A Marginal Risk has been
introduced in our HWO graphics mainly for areas along and south of
the Hwy 82 corridor through daybreak Tuesday morning.

Come Tuesday, global guidance show the cold front pushing further
south towards the Gulf Coast. This will allow for a 1022 mb to build
into the area from the northwest as the trough axis propagates east
towards the Carolinas and the sfc low continues to shift northeast
across the Upper East Coast and into southern Canada. By Wednesday,
dry and cool conditions will occur across the southeast US as
northwest flow aloft will help limit heating from the Gulf. Isolated
showers and storms will make a brief return to the area on Thursday
and Friday with quiet conditions through the weekend. Ridging aloft
will help keep weather conditions quiet heading into the next work
week. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys have developed cntrl and south. These
conditions wl prevail there until after 15Z when improvement to
VFR conditions are expected. VFR conditions wl prevail across the
north nut isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA wl develop and track
east across the this morning. VFR conds wl prevail areawide after
15Z but after 08Z Sun MVFR/IFR cigs wl redevelop cntrl and south
and prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  73  92  72 /  20   0   0  30
Meridian      93  72  94  72 /  20  10   0  20
Vicksburg     90  73  93  72 /  20   0   0  30
Hattiesburg   94  72  94  74 /  10   0   0  10
Natchez       92  72  92  72 /  10   0   0  20
Greenville    88  75  92  73 /  40   0  10  50
Greenwood     89  74  93  72 /  40  10   0  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/22/CR