Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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442 FXUS62 KJAX 221333 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 933 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 924 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Convection blowing up over Saint Simons Island and just offshore, am watching that closely for possible flooding in the City of Brunswick, GA. Right now it looks like the main band will remain just offshore but that is a pretty fine lone and some of the areas there such as near the Altama Connector, College Park and Rose Drive could be overwhelmed pretty quickly if it sets up over he city. Otherwise as we realize daytime heating we should see convection blow up over the interior areas and move back toward the coast around the low over coastal Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 During this period, we`ll have an upper ridge of high pressure centered over the western Gulf Coast states, while an upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA coastline...with northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface, we`ll have daily sea breeze interactions generating scattered to numerous showers and storms, with greater coverage across NE FL compared to SE GA each day. A warming trend is expected as 850mb temperatures rise from around 18C today to 21-22C Sunday and Monday, likely to translate to above normal high temperatures in the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with mid-upper 90s inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in interior SE GA could peak around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values each day will likely be in the 100-105 range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The upper pattern changes little until Wednesday Night and Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast area, with the ECM a bit more intense with trough than the GFS, a reverse of what was shown by models 24hrs earlier. Both models leave behind an upper low over the region, with the ECM positioning it over the forecast area Friday, while the GFS has it over the nrn Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, with a moist environment in place, and active sea breezes with above normal inland temps, expecting to see scattered to numerous showers/storms each afternoon. Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday, but could end up close to normal if the ECM pattern verifies. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 SSI is the last of the sites to have ceiling restrictions, and likely will continue through the morning as the weak tropical low lingers. Isolated thunderstorms will develop across NE FL and SE GA this afternoon, PROB30s in place for best guess on timing of impacts for the TAF sites in Duval and SGJ. && .MARINE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The coastal Georgia low will continue to weaken and then move northeast away from the waters today and tonight. Strong high pressure to the northeast will weaken and shift towards Bermuda this weekend with decreasing winds and seas with a more typical summer sea breeze pattern returning into early next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the southeastern states through midweek. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of rip currents. Conditions are still very choppy (washing machine) with lots of water coming over the sand bars. that will increase the velocity of the longshore currents and feed rips. Use caution today if going into the water. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 73 95 75 / 70 30 50 10 SSI 86 76 92 78 / 70 60 70 20 JAX 89 74 93 75 / 70 60 80 20 SGJ 89 75 92 76 / 70 70 80 30 GNV 94 73 93 73 / 70 50 80 10 OCF 94 74 94 75 / 60 50 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$