Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
802 FXUS62 KJAX 160524 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 124 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Morning fog is expected this morning, mainly north of I10, as cloud cover over north central FL will be a limiting factor there. Not expecting widespread dense fog, but a few locations could become dense for a short time around dawn. High pressure will build to the north northeast this period. This will enhance the onshore flow pattern. With an onshore flow, the sea breeze will push inland earlier in the day. Convection is expected to intiate on the sea breeze over eastern portions of NE FL later this morning, due to the sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating. This activity will then shift inland through the afternoon, as the flow pushes it along. Due to the strength of the onshore flow, the Gulf sea breeze will only push to just shy of the forecast area, but may still help to strengthen activity once it reaches the I75 corridor. This activity will continue through the afternoon into early evening, then diminish with loss of diurnal heating. Clearing skies for Tonight. Could see patchy fog develop again overnight, but will depend on where rain falls Today, and how much cloud lingers past the day time hours. Highs will range from the lower to mid 90s inland, with mid to upper 80s along the coast. Lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected, except closer to 80 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland areas. Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps elevated. Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas. Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps elevated. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula. Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to 50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles. Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25 mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70% range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor with lower to middle 90s over inland areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Morning fog will be possible this morning, mainly from Jacksonville north, as high cloudiness over north central FL will decrease fog chances further south. The fog will diminish shortly after sunrise. Convection will develop near the NE FL coast later this morning on sea breeze, with this activity then moving further inland through the afternoon. The I75 corridor will be most active for convection from mid afternoon through early evening, with the KGNV site most affected Today with convection related restrictions. Any convection which develops this Today, will diminish this evening, with mainly clear skies for Tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure will be located to the northeast through the middle of next week. This will result in a prolonged period of onshore flow, with Small Craft Advisory criteria conditions possible beginning Tuesday. Long range models indicate a wave of low pressure moving west toward the FL peninsula later in the week. At this point, there is a good bit of uncertainty regarding how strong this wave may become, so stay aware of latest information. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, then high for Monday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 72 93 69 / 10 0 20 10 SSI 87 79 86 76 / 10 0 40 20 JAX 91 75 89 73 / 10 0 50 20 SGJ 88 77 88 75 / 10 0 60 30 GNV 92 72 91 71 / 40 0 40 10 OCF 91 73 93 71 / 40 20 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$