372
FXUS62 KJAX 170501
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
101 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track through tonight, no major updates
required at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Hot and sunny day today with upper ridging and dry west-
northwesterly flow. The Atlantic sea breeze will struggle to shift
inland allowing temperatures to soar into the low 90s even all the
way to the coast. Light southwesterly flow develops tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front moving into the Deep South gradually
increasing moisture. Calming winds and slight increase in low
level moisture will lead to potential patchy fog developing along
the I-75 corridor during the pre- dawn hours. Overnight lows will
be in the mid/upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Southwesterly flow and a lifting warm front will increase moisture
levels across NE FL and SE GA, but not enough to promote more
than scattered showers and thunderstorms inland on Friday
afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be near normal in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Precipitation chances will increase on Saturday as the frontal
system approaches slowly from the northwest. Daytime heating ahead
of the front will allow temperatures to soar into the lower to mid
90s for much of NE FL, including the beaches since elevated SW
winds will keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the coast. Heat
indices across most of NE FL will rise to or above 100 degrees.
Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will be present
across the area, with potential for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon due to diurnal heating. The
slow movement of the front will allow for a locally heavy rainfall
threat causing flooding concerns, mainly for SE GA and the
Suwannee valley given already saturated soils from the past few
days. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The front will sit over central Florida through the day Sunday,
keeping numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
 the evening, although there remains some uncertainty in the
timing of the front`s exit from the region. Temperatures Sunday
will be slightly `cooler` behind the front, with highs in the mid
80s to near 90.

Steering flow will shift northerly at the start of the work week,
allowing drier conditions to move into the area, and even cooler
high temperatures on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to upper
80s. Scattered rain and thunderstorms will remain possible on
Monday afternoon and evening across NE FL and SE GA, by Tuesday
isolated rain chances will be limited to north central Florida.
Temperatures will be on an upward trend through the week, with
Wednesday looking rain-free for the area before isolated chances
return Thursday as another front approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The front will sit over central Florida through the day Sunday,
keeping numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
 the evening, although there remains some uncertainty in the
timing of the front`s exit from the region. Temperatures Sunday
will be slightly `cooler` behind the front, with highs in the mid
80s to near 90.

Steering flow will shift northerly at the start of the work week,
allowing drier conditions to move into the area, and even cooler
high temperatures on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to upper
80s. Scattered rain and thunderstorms will remain possible on
Monday afternoon and evening across NE FL and SE GA, by Tuesday
isolated rain chances will be limited to north central Florida.
Temperatures will be on an upward trend through the week, with
Wednesday looking rain-free for the area before isolated chances
return Thursday as another front approaches from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected with the exception of localized light
fog developing around sunrise at KGNV and KVQQ. A decaying system
to the west will send a batch of mid/high clouds and embedded
light rain/sprinkles overhead through the morning. Southerly winds
are favored at inland airfields while a sea breeze turns winds
SSE at coastal airfields this afternoon. An unstable airmass will
follow behind a lifting warm this evening, trending winds
southwesterly at or below 6-8 kts. As it does so, a few showers
could develop during the evening hours at all airfields.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A ridge of high pressure builds into the area through Friday.
Daily afternoon and evening wind surges expected today and Friday
as the sea breeze shifts onshore. Associated high pressure shifts
from the northeast to east of area waters this weekend as another
frontal system approaches. The system will remain in the vicinity
of the region through at least Monday, returning chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Another ridge looks to build in from
the north by Monday.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will lead to a Low Risk today, while a
stronger sea breeze on Friday will lead to a Moderate Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  89  69 /  40  50  80  60
SSI  85  73  89  71 /  10  20  60  60
JAX  92  72  93  71 /  20  20  50  50
SGJ  90  72  93  71 /  20  10  40  50
GNV  89  71  91  70 /  30  10  60  50
OCF  90  73  92  73 /  40   0  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$