834
FXUS62 KJAX 260543
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Convection associated with the passing shortwave is weakening over
Flagler County late this evening. Skies will clear overnight, with
patchy fog possible for locations west of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday. Fog
will dissipate during the early morning hours. Subsidence in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough, clearing skies, and light
winds will allow lows to fall to the upper 60s to around 70 at
inland locations, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

With an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico,
west- southwest steering flow will be in place, before a cold
front begins to move in from the northwest late Monday. Hot and
mostly dry conditions are expected, with a few showers possible as
the Gulf coast sea breeze meets up with the Atlantic sea breeze
along the east coast during the late afternoon into early evening
on Sunday. Otherwise, the next chance of showers will be from late
Monday afternoon into evening along the northern SE GA counties
ahead of an incoming cold front nears the area.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with Sunday seeing the
warmer daytime temperatures. The highest temperatures will be
focused toward the I-95 corridor as daytime temperatures will
range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

On Tuesday a cold front will make its way the area, bringing
scattered showers and storms to spread from SE GA and south to NE
FL. The possibility for stronger storms Tuesday afternoon as some
passing shortwaves aloft will bring some instability and
additional lift to the area. By Wednesday the front will shift to
central FL and eventually stalling over central FL, bringing
chances of convection over the north central FL counties, with the
potential for scattered showers and storms on Thursday and
Friday.

Temperatures will begin to `cool` a bit after the cold
front`s passage. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool
morning lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs
will then range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the mid 90s in
north-central FL. |

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions prevail at this time. Some low flight conditions
over inland southeast GA at 05z, where some rain fell on Saturday.
With light winds and clearing skies, some mist and possible low
stratus can be expected in the more prone areas, i.e. at VQQ. For
JAX, CRG, and SGJ, and GNV will continue to monitor whether further
reductions in vsby are needed but currently low/moderate confidence
by about 09z-12z. Then, VFR clouds should then prevail after 13Z.
Rain chances are lower today than Saturday so no mention of VCSH
or VCTS is in the TAFs. There is an outside chance (about 15%) of
a shower or storm near JAX and SSI late today but subsequent TAFs
can address that if needed. Winds will be light westerly after
sunrise, with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary push onshore before
noon, with surface winds shifting to easterly around 10 knots at
SGJ after 16Z and southeast around 10 knots at SSI by 18Z. These
onshore winds will then progress inland across the Duval County
terminals by 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.MARINE...Tranquil boating conditions are expected through the
weekend with high pressure in the area and prevailing offshore flow.
Afternoon sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon. The
main concern will be the potential for thunderstorms mainly during
the early evening hours tonight which could contain strong winds.
Storm chances lessen Sunday and Monday before being renewed by an
incoming cold front Tuesday.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk continues through Monday due to
increased crowds at area beaches. Despite low surf (less than 2
feet) and weak swell, rip currents are still possible especially
near piers and jetties.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Moderate river flooding due to `backwater` is forecast to begin
next week from Thursday to Friday for the Santa Fe at Three Rivers
Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin remains
in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are expected to
rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  71  92  72 /  10  10  30  30
SSI  91  74  91  73 /  10   0  10  40
JAX  95  71  94  72 /  10   0  10  20
SGJ  92  73  93  73 /  10   0   0  20
GNV  95  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  96  69  94  72 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$