Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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460 FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1055 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will affect the area today and tonight. - Relatively cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold front passing through eastern Kentucky on Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2024 Convection, mainly just showers continue to move northeast across the region in association with a lead disturbance shortwave trough moving across the Commonwealth and the TN Valley and ahead of the main 500 mb trough which is nearing the Lower OH Valley. Lightning activity has been minimal so far, though as we approach peak heating, lightning will be commonplace. Due to persistent clouds, CAPE is lower today as compared to yesterday with shear still lower end, but about 5KT higher than yesterday, nearer to or just above 20KT. Moisture is quite substantial, with PW analyzed in the 1.4 to 1.7 inch range. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out with a gusty wind threat, locally heavy rain is the main threat in any areas that pick up multiple thunderstorms following the rainfall that fell yesterday. UPDATE Issued at 818 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2024 Adjusted cloud cover for tonight to slow down the decrease in clouds, as a blend of overnight model runs suggests clouds will be slower to leave. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 557 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2024 A strong upper low (by June standards) will move east southeast from Saskatchewan to the upper Great Lakes during the period. An elongated trough/wave rotating around the south side of the low was roughly over the Mississippi Valley early this morning, and will approach our area today and depart to our east tonight. It will support a weak surface cold front accompanying it. The approach of the front and upper trough will support showers and thunderstorms in the warm and moist air present over our area today into tonight. Precipitation will diminish as the front and upper trough depart tonight and early Thursday. Models disagree on how much drying takes place initially behind the front. The greatest amount of drying will be behind a secondary front which will be entering the forecast area from the northwest Thursday evening. Before that happens, models suggest some additional shower develop on Thursday afternoon as the second front approaches. Forecast soundings show shallow instability capped in the mid levels-- convective currents not tall enough for thunder, but deep enough for precip. As mentioned, there is still some variance in models regarding the setup ahead of the second front, and the GFS and HRRR are the most aggressive at generating light precipitation. Have used a 20% late day POP at this time. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2024 The 05/00z model suite is generally in good synoptic agreement at the start of the period before spread increases this weekend/early next week. Initially, an ~548 dam low is in place over the Upper Great Lakes, embedded within a swale extending northwestward in the Yukon. This relative troughing is sandwiched between a prominent ridge over the western CONUS and another orphaned ridge axis aligned from Labrador/Quebec northwestward into the eastern Beaufort Sea. At the surface, a regional analysis shows an ~991 mb low south of James Bay while its cold front extends southward in to the Central Appalachians and then extends southwestward along the southern side of the of Ohio River, including across Kentucky, and beyond across the Ozarks. High pressure is found just north of the boundary across the the Central and Northern Plains. The cold front sags across southeast Kentucky late Thursday evening as the parent upper low drifts toward the Lower Great Lakes. The upper level forcing with this system remains well north of of the Commonwealth, leaving just the weak low-level convergence along the front to spark convection under a strong ~600 mb cap. The potential for lingering scattered convection is depicted by a majority of the 00z CAMs suite. Once that front clears the area, a drier and cooler air mass will move in on northwesterly breezes late Thursday Night and Friday as surface high pressure sinks southeastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid- South Saturday night. Meanwhile, a vort max over the Canadian Prairies, will pivot, either in part or whole, around the upper low over the Lower Great Lakes, bringing another surface cold front to the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields. The system`s evolution will have a significant bearing on the rain chances late this weekend and early next week, depending upon whether this vort max remains more of a progressive open wave or forms a slow-moving closed low. Sensible weather will feature a diminishing threat for showers on Thursday evening. Once the precipitation ends, fair weather can be expected into Saturday morning with slightly cooler temperatures, ranging mainly in the mid to upper 70s for highs and in the lower to mid 50s for lows. A few of the coldest hollows could see upper 40s on Friday night. While the specifics are still uncertain, the daily threat for showers and even a few thunderstorms is very likely to return on Saturday and persist into early next week as the next cold front and upper level system approach. Forecast high temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 70s through the remainder of the forecast period while nighttime lows bottom out in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 818 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2024 Mainly dry weather was present to start the period. Conditions were largely VFR, with the exception of a few places near the TN border. A period of MVFR ceilings may occur this morning as heating begins, but the bulk of the day into tonight is forecast to be VFR, aside from any showers and thunderstorms which occur. There are showers and thunderstorms expected at times, mainly from mid day into tonight. However, the predictability of timing at any given location is too low to specify it in the TAFs, and VCTS has been used. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...HAL