411
FXUS63 KJKL 151856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/hot temperatures and high dew points will persist for the
  next week, resulting in sultry conditions.

- There will be a daily potential for showers/thunderstorms over
  the next week, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, and
roughly extends along the I-75 corridor and west. These showers and
storms are expected to progress east through the afternoon, as a 500-
mb vort maxima is helping in supporting these. These scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms should taper off in
coverage and intensity heading into the early evening. Winds will be
light and variable at the surface overnight, however winds will
remain elevated further aloft. This may mitigate the coverage and
intensity of river valley fog development tonight, compared to
previous nights. Places within river valleys that do receive
rainfall this afternoon may have slightly better chances of fog
development overnight than those that don`t. Temperatures tonight
will generally remain in the low 70s.

Wednesday, a second shortwave passes through the Ohio Valley
bringing with it another 500-mb vorticity maxima, advancing through
Kentucky. This maxima will help kick-off another round of convection
tomorrow, as early as 15Z in some model solutions. Showers will be
scattered to numerous with isolated thunderstorms. Any training or
slow moving storms do have the potential to produce locally heavy
rain rates with PWAT hovering around 2 inches. Heading into the
early evening showers and storms will begin to taper off from west
to east, although shower activity may linger across the Cumberland
Plateau. Daytime temperatures will likely range from the upper 80s to
low 90s with night-time lows in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025

The period is expected to begin with upper level ridging centered
in the Atlantic to the southeast of Bermuda and extending into
the Southeast to Arklatex regions. A shortwave trough per the
consensus of guidance moving around this ridging is expected to be
moving across the Lower OH Valley. A tropical wave/system should
be over the eastern Gulf at that point as well while upper level
ridging should extend into the southwest Conus at that time.
Further north, an upper level low is progged to be centered over
the eastern Hudson Bay vicinity with troughing south and
southwest into the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley and into
portions of the Northern Rockies with multiple shortwaves likely
moving through this trough. At the surface, a frontal zone
is expected to be north of eastern KY from the mid Atlantic
states into the southern to western Great Lakes while another
frontal zone ahead of the upper low and troughing from Canada into
north central parts of the Conus should extend from the
Maritimes/Lower St Lawrence Valley across Quebec tot he Northern
Great Lakes to upper MS Valley to Central Plains and then into
portions of the western Conus. A sfc ridge of high pressure should
extend from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic.

Wednesday to Thursday night, upper level ridging is expected to
remain from the Atlantic into sections of the Southeast/northern
Gulf States tot he Arklatex vicinity while the tropical wave
likely moves west or west/northwest over the Gulf or near the Gulf
coast. A shortwave trough should track from the Lower to middle OH
Valley on Wednesday followed by some height rises over eastern KY
and the Southern Appalachians Wed night into early Thursday.
Neutral 500 mb height tendencies or slight rises generally follow
from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This will occur as
the 500 mb trough shifts east across the Northern Plains/Upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes. An additional shortwave may also move
east from the western Conus to Central Conus in westerly flow and
near the Lower OH Valley late Thursday night. During this
timeframe, a ridge of sfc high pressure will extend form the
Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians/eastern KY while the
tropical wave/potential tropical system may near the Lower MS
Valley region. As the shortwave troughs pass by to the north and
northwest, the frontal zone initially north and northwest of the
OH Valley should gradually drop south and southeast across the
Great Lakes and approach the OH River by late Thursday night.
Convection will be possible during this time, generally peaking
each afternoon and evening. However, with some forcing from
passing shortwave troughs and the approach of the front,
convection cannot be ruled out at night. Fog, especially in the
valleys is anticipated for Wed night and Thu night and pending
the degree of clearing and where heavier rain falls each daytime
period could end up with greater areal extent or dense in some
areas. PW per the 00Z LREF mean is on the order of 1.7 to 1.9
inches with deterministic guidance nearer to 2 inches. Any
convection during this period could produce locally heavy rain
rates.

Friday to Saturday night, upper level ridging per the guidance
consensus should continue to extend from parts of the Atlantic
into the southeast Conus and perhaps develop over the Southern
Plains as well. The possible tropical system and its evolution
varies from model run to model run, though moisture form this
system should gradually move across sections of the Gulf coast
states. Further north, westerly flow aloft should remain from the
Rockies to the Central and Northern Plains to Great Lakes/OH
Valley to Northeast. Multiple shortwave troughs are progged to
move through the westerly flow during that time with guidance
having one crossing sections of the OH Valley and eastern KY on
Friday and another moving into the Great Lakes/Lower OH Valley
later Saturday into Saturday night. The frontal zone north of the
OH River early on Friday may tend to sag across the Northeast and
mid Atlantic states and middle OH Valley and into northern
sections of eastern KY Friday late Friday into Friday night before
returning north as low pressure treks from the Central Plains to
the Central Great Lakes. This westerly flow aloft from the
Rockies to eastern Conus will occur downstream of an upper trough
moving from BC into the Northwest Conus. Convection peaking in
coverage each afternoon and evening with the threat of locally
heavy rain as is typical of mid July is anticipated across eastern
KY Friday and Saturday with the potential for some convection at
night as well.

Sunday to Monday, uncertainty remains with the track and possible
remnants or moisture from the possible tropical system over the
Southeast Conus to end the weekend and begin next week. Otherwise,
generally higher heights and upper ridging should extend from the
Atlantic across much of the Southeastern Conus and Southern
Plains to Southwest. Shortwave troughs should continue moving east
across northern sections of the Conus and southern Canada during
this time. One may cross the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley later
Sunday to Sunday night and reach the Great Lakes Monday while
another shortwave over the Great Lakes early on Sunday tracks to
the Northeast Conus Sunday to Sunday night. Associated sfc low
pressure in advance of this initial shortwave is expected to pass
well north of eastern KY with the trailing frontal zone sagging
south of the Great Lakes and approaches the Lower and Middle OH
Valley from Sunday to Sunday night though this front will likely
remain north of eastern KY through the period and perhaps lift
back north as the next system moves near the International border.
Convection, peaking in coverage each afternoon and evening is
anticipated to begin the new week as well and as in earlier
timeframe in the long term period, locally heavy rain will remain
a threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025

Showers and storms have redeveloped early this afternoon;
therefore, opted to have PROB 30s for each of the sites. Showers
and storms will dissipate toward sunset and some patchy river
valley FG is expected tonight, although perhaps not as widespread
as is the case this morning. This is contingent on if TAF sites
get rain this afternoon. Modeled winds aloft are much stronger
than previous nights so a stratus deck would be more favored
rather than FG. Winds are forecast to be light and variable
through the period. Lastly, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to redevelop Wednesday anytime after 15Z, so some PROB 30s have
been reintroduced toward the tail end of the TAF period for JKL,
SME, and SYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK