627
FXUS63 KJKL 141435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or
  thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening, primarily
  northeast of KY-15.

- Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with
  highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100
  degrees in some locations each afternoon from Sunday through
  Wednesday.

- Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible from Monday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

Another very warm mid-June day is unfolding across the region
under partly to mostly sunny skies. A subtle disturbance could
spark a sprinkle or shower this afternoon, primarily northeast of
KY-15. A cold front will then settle in from the north later this
evening, perhaps sparking a few more isolated showers, again
generally northeast of KY-15. One or two of the most robust
updrafts might mature into a thunderstorm, in which case, plenty
of dry air leading to DCAPE values greater than 1,000 J/kg would
support the risk for strong thunderstorm wind gusts.

UPDATE Issued at 707 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

An area of sprinkles and light rain continue to move southeast
across the northern half of the forecast area this morning. This
is leftovers from last night`s thunderstorm activity in the
Midwest. So far the highest precipitation amounts are only 0.01"
in our CWA, so just enough to get the ground wet in a few
locations. Have thus adjusted PoPs and Sky grids to account for
this activity through the mid-morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

The latest surface analysis has a surface low moving across the
Great Lakes with a cold front extending southwestward toward the
Central Plains. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and
thunderstorms are diving southeast toward the Commonwealth. Current
radar trends have the showers and storms drifting along an outflow
boundary but radar trends have the showers weakening with a couple
of pulse showers that are short-lived. Those showers will continue
to push southeast through the remainder of the overnight and a stray
shower may be possible in the Bluegrass early tomorrow morning.

As the aforementioned cold front dives southeast toward the
Commonwealth, renewed chances of showers and storms will exist along
and ahead of the front. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty outflow
winds as a deep column of dry air exists across the area. The front
is expected to exit to the east late Friday evening with shower and
thunderstorm activity will decreasing in coverage. Along with
thunderstorm chances existing across the area, high temperatures are
forecast to push into the upper-80s to low-90s across the region.

Surface high pressure will begin to nudge itself into the area
overnight Friday before becoming firmly entrenched for Saturday.
High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be similar to Friday.
Fortunately, dry air will continue to be in place and heat indices
will remain on the more bearable side.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

The long term period begins Saturday night with an upper high
rapidly strengthening over the Southern Appalachians through early
Monday, then moving to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US through mid-
week before moving into the western Atlantic Ocean toward the end of
the week. Meanwhile, the jet stream remains well north of eastern
Kentucky through the period, keeping active weather far removed from
the area.

Much of the period will be hot and dry, with the best chances for
isolated disorganized showers and storms coming each of Monday
through Thursday afternoons when the area resides more under the
periphery of the unusually strong upper ridge over the Northeast US.

The heat will be the big story, with highs well into the 90s and
lows in the 60s to lower 70s from Sunday onward. Heat indices will
approach 100 degrees each day from Sunday onward as well, with
Monday and Tuesday most likely to be the hottest days with a few
indices exceeding 100 degrees but likely remaining below Heat
Advisory criteria of 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least the vast
majority of the TAF period as high pressure will largely exist
across the region. However, a passing disturbance could bring a
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Confidence in
precipitation chances and coverage are very low; therefore, opted
to keep any mention in the TAFs as VCTS with isolated showers and
storms possible through 00Z/Saturday. Light and variable winds
will persist through the TAF period but gusty outflows could exist
where thunderstorm activity is present. MVFR or worse conditions
are possible in fog after 06z/Saturday especially where rain
occurs this afternoon, but this is low confidence at this time.
Opted to follow statistical guidance with regards to mentioning
any fog at any TAF site with the 12z TAF package.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC