440
FXUS63 KJKL 130820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
420 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with
  highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100
  degrees in some locations each afternoon Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible next week as more tropical moisture builds into the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024

No real changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids for this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2024

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation
trends. This led to dropping temperatures in some of the eastern
valley cold spots off quicker than the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 456 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2024

Kentucky lies south of the core westerlies locked up across the
Great Lakes and north of a deep south west to east oriented
trough. Shortwave energy riding west to east along the Northern
Tier will help amplify the flow across the Midwest through the
period. This will drop a weak frontal boundary southward close to
the Ohio River by the end of the short term. Return southwesterly
flow around the periphery of the surface high that has moved off
to our east will continue to pull warm air in from the southwest.
Moisture return will be more slow/gradual since the flow is out of
the southwest versus from out of the Deep South.

Sensible weather features continued dry, fair weather for the
short term. With the slow moisture recovery, surface Tds are only
responding very gradually, climbing to around the 60 degree mark
by tomorrow. Thus while temperatures will climb to the mid and
upper 80s tomorrow, conditions will not feel as oppressive as they
might be otherwise. In addition, overnight lows will continue to
run cool, in the low 50s in our coolest valley locations tonight
and around 60 tomorrow night. Coolest temps will be in the east as
western valleys will tend to remain more mixy under the influence
of slightly stronger return flow. Valley fog will continue to
develop each night through the period, perhaps becoming a bit more
widespread with each passing night due to the gradual increase in
moisture. However, moderating temperatures through the period
will also tend to keep temperatures elevated from crossover
thresholds. Thus fog, while becoming a bit more widespread, will
probably not become so dense as to become a problem...or from from
becoming more impactful than what is typically experienced during
the morning commutes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024

The period begins with upper-level northwesterly flow, as the trough
responsible for Friday afternoon`s shower activity, pivots through
the region. Behind the exiting trough, ridging is forecast to build
in from the southwest with surface high pressure beginning to
establish itself over the region for the remainder of the weekend
into next week. As the high shifts north and east, increasing
temperatures are expected as highs will climb into the low to mid-
90s for Sunday and Monday; this coupled with increasing moisture
will allow for heat indices to approach 100 degrees. Models continue
to remain in agreement for next week as surface high pressure will
remain across the area. However, as the surface high shifts to the
northeast, increasing Gulf moisture will allow for disorganized
shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the period
with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-90s and heat indices
in the upper-90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail throughout the period, outside
of the river valleys where fog will be found through 13Z. Winds
will be light and variable at less than 5 kts into Thursday
night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP/GREIF