Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
126 FXUS62 KKEY 170901 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 501 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 It`s another warm and muggy morning for the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the island chain are currently as warm as the lower 80s with oppressive dewpoints in the upper 70s to match. Breezes are lighter than yesterday at this time with their direction being generally out of the south. KBYX radar is free of any precipitable echoes. GOES 16 nighttime microphysics imagery depicts low clouds drifting north along a few lazy boundaries in the Florida Bay and Straits of Florida with higher cloud debris invading from the northwest from ongoing storms on the northern Gulf coast. Today looks to be a repeat of yesterday`s conditions. Most of the deep layer moisture will reside north of our area as ridging in the Caribbean keeps our flow aloft zonal to slightly anticyclonic. As a result, near nil PoPs will persist today and into the weekend. This along with sparse cloud cover and gentle southerly breezes will allow for another hot day in the Keys. High temperatures will reach into the lower 90s and as long as dewpoints hold out in the upper 70s, we will see another round of heat index values above 100. Deep layer ridging will dominate our sensible weather pattern throughout this weekend resulting in multiple days of low rain chances and near record heat. That is until the end of the weekend when a mid latitude trough marches southeast from the Midwest. As the ridging retreats into the Atlantic, tropical moisture will be pulled into our area as flow becomes more cyclonic. This will result in chance PoPs and slight chance thunder from Sunday night through Tuesday. We`ll hopefully start to see some relief from the heat with these increased rain chances, but may also see a lowering of surface dewpoints with a northerly wind shift caused by a closed low developing off the east coast of Florida by Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western North Atlantic will result in a chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow morning, however, brief intermittent MVFR CIGS are possible this morning as lowered cloud decks move from south to north across the island chain. Surface winds are forecast to range from 6 to 11 knots, with a prevailing direction of southeast to south this morning through this evening, becoming more southeasterly overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2012, the daily record rainfall was recorded at both Key West (2.66") and Marathon (1.49"). Rainfall records date back to 1871 in Key West and 1950 in Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 82 92 82 / 0 0 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 0 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest