Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
934 FXUS62 KKEY 160854 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 454 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 It`s a muggy, pseudo wet season start along the island chain this morning. Current temperatures are in the lower 80s with disgusting dewpoints in the upper 70s. We found some relief in our nightly wind surge with moderate to fresh south to southwest breezes observed along our Reef observation stations. However, these breezes are already starting to simmer down and, similar to yesterday, really slacken after sunrise. KBYX radar is clear of any showers in our CWA, but does note a cluster of thunderstorms way off to our northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. These storms are sending billows of cirrus cloud debris over South Florida. In addition to these high clouds, a few streams of shallow cumulus have crossed the island chain from the south with little fanfare. Another warm day is on tap for the Keys today. South to southwesterly breezes will be moderate early turning towards the northwest and slackening throughout today influenced by a surface low off the coast of New England and mainland Florida heating. A stalled out front over central Florida will house the better environment for convection tomorrow, but zonal flow aloft will likely keep most activity north of our area. That being said, even with our drier profile, a stray air parcel pushed through our capping inversion could access a great deal of CAPE (ML from yesterday`s 00z is over 2000 J/kg!) and possibly develop into showers or even a stray thunderstorm. Heat index values will rise into the 100s once again during the hottest part of the afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s. Low temperatures will once again be in the lower 80s. Moving into this weekend, ridging and its associated surface high nosing in from the western North Atlantic will guide our winds for the early part of this weekend. The deep layer moisture from the stalled out front over mainland Florida will remain north of our CWA as the rest of the mid latitude system spirals out into the Atlantic. A warm dome of air will persist aloft with guidance suggesting another few warm and dry days Friday and Saturday. The pattern starts to shift on the other half of the weekend as the next trough progresses east across the midwest Saturday afternoon. This system along with a developing low along Florida`s east coast will draw moisture into our area from the south and provide a decent environment for convective development at the beginning of the week. Thus have included a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. Following this, the freshly formed low may help the approaching front pivot through the Keys dropping dewpoints into the lower 70s. While this is a nice relief possibly on the horizon, we`ll have to see how consistent this solution is in the next few runs before promising a dip in oppressive moisture. && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease in all Florida Keys waters this morning. This overnight surge has been ongoing for a while, but will back off as we near sunrise. From synopsis, a weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunder chances will remain low through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Near-surface winds accelerated before sunrise to near 20 knot crosswinds across EYW and MTH, but the winds are expected to collapse after sunrise. Streams of BKN CIGs are passing across the terminals in the early morning, and TEMPOs may be necessary if IFR CIGs manage to develop. Periods of MVFR CIGs will be short-lived, but cloud cover will persist below FL020 through the pre-dawn hours. High altitude debris cloud from a thunderstorm cluster in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move across Florida Keys waters as well. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1923, a daily record rainfall of 2.89 inches was measured at Key West. May rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 81 90 82 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 82 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest