Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
366 FXUS62 KKEY 181435 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Currently - A wetter than normal weather pattern entrenched across the region is being driven by a number of factors. Broad upper level trough persists across the southeastern United States and reaches southward past the Keys. This is likely sustaining a region of surface troughing off the southeast Atlantic Coast. In turn, markedly diminishing the western Flank of the Atlantic ridge. Lastly, precipitable water remains above 2 inches with an old front stagnant across the Florida Peninsula. After a round of convection across portions of the forecast area this morning, only a smattering of activity remains around the Upper Keys and on our deep gulf waters. Short Term Update - The overall wet pattern will continue as no substantive changes to the driving factors are expected. Portions of the island chain have been worked over and will likely take some time before being capable of supporting showers and thunderstorms. However, a large portions of Keys remain relatively undisturbed. This along with current radar trends justify holding on to current PoPs through the afternoon. Aside from convective influences, expect winds to be light and variable, tending southeasterly. Expect highs to be in the upper 80s to near 90 and highly dependent on the persistence of the thicker mid and upper cloud decks. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Weak surface troughing off the southeast Atlantic Coast will continue to keep a flimsy pressure gradient and wind field across Keys waters this afternoon. Winds will tend light out of the southeast with a lot of variability tossed in. Only minor adjustments made in the morning marine update. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Shower activity has diminished at both EYW and MTH. VCSH has been removed from the TAFs for the time being but could be reintroduced later this afternoon if confidence in location of shower activity increases. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1926, "the Great Miami Hurricane" made landfall in Miami at category 4 intensity, bringing Hurricane force winds to the Upper Keys. In Key West, the minimum pressure was 29.48", or 998 mb, and the maximum sustained wind was 52 mph. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest