Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
709 FXUS62 KKEY 211430 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 952 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Weather conditions along the Florida Keys are much quieter compared to the past few days, and we are certainly not complaining about it. The KBYX radar is detecting a few isolated showers to the north of the island chain at this time, but they are riding on some old boundaries and should diminish soon as they run their course. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT product shows an impressively drier airmass aloft with values of approximately 1.6" to 1.8" across the area, and our 12Z balloon launch confirms this with a calculated PWAT value of 1.63". We can see this more comfortable airmass reflected in surface observations on land as current dew points are coming in with values in the lower to mid 70s. Coupled with temperatures that are currently in the mid to upper 80s, we have heat indices that are actually below the 100 degree mark. There is not much to speak of in terms of larger-scale features, so the forecast will continue to unfold as expected and there are no changes or updates needed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. From synopsis, as a trough slides slowly eastward across the western North Atlantic through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, high pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard will bring gradually increasing easterly breezes to the Keys coastal waters beginning on Monday. Heading into the middle of next week, the forecast will depend on the potential development and movement of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. At this time, we expect freshening east to southeast breezes, with the strongest winds over western sections of the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 952 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. As dry air takes over our area, VCSH is not included for either terminal. Near surface winds are mostly easterly becoming east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1948, a Hurricane intensified as it moved north northeast off of Cuba, crossing Boca Chica Key as category 3 storm. At Boca Chica the peak wind was 122 mph before the anemometer blew away, with an estimated peak wind of 140 mph. In Key West the minimum pressure was measured at 28.45" and a daily-record 4.53" of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 90 82 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 90 81 90 81 / 30 20 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest