Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
312 FXUS62 KKEY 151019 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 619 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 514 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The nighttime hours offered a little bit of excitement as the KBYX radar picked up on some showers, and occasional lightning, drifting across our waters. Even though things have tapered off at this time, multiple lingering boundaries are apparent on radar, so some spotty pop up showers are still possible. Other than that, conditions are quiet along the island chain this very early morning. Not much has changed with regards to the synoptic pattern, and today is expected to look a lot like yesterday. As of 5 AM EDT, heat index values were already flirting with the 100F mark. Therefore, another Heat Advisory will be in effect starting at 10 AM EDT for the Florida Keys. It feels like we could issue these with our eyes closed, but we won`t try that. There may be some good news here. As previous discussions have mentioned, guidance suggests the troughy pattern in place over the southeastern portion of the U.S. may deepen off of the coastline before retrograding back toward the peninsula. This solution is the one that will result in more active weather around the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe, but it will also offer a break from Heat Advisories. The moisture surge coming with this will help build in more cloud coverage, as well as bring ample moisture and a larger- scale lifting mechanism to trigger showers and thunderstorms. The catch is that some guidance still suggests that this won`t be the case, so it is difficult to say just how wet things could be. The takeaway is that we finally have a chance for some relief, even though we may have to trade it for wet and cloudy conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 514 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light, and at times, variable breezes will continue through Thursday across the Florida Keys coastal waters. An upper level trough will amplify and slowly slide southward towards the Florida Peninsula this. This will likely bring elevated rain and thunder chances back to the Keys, although confidence in the extended forecast is quite low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH today. A period of southwesterly flow may result in cloudline formation later this morning through this afternoon. Exact timing is still quite uncertain but have given a reasonable first guess of earliest formation with VCSH mention in both TAFs. Near surface winds will be light and variable early, becoming southwest to west. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 94F was last recorded at Key West International Airport and Marathon International Airport. Temperatures records for Key West and Marathon date back to 1872 and 1950 respectively. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 91 83 / 30 30 40 40 Marathon 92 83 90 82 / 30 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest