Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
278 FXUS62 KKEY 211437 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 After early morning shower and thunderstorm activity dotting portions of the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters, activity has largely decayed over the past several hours. Upper-air analysis places the axis of the shortwave trough that promoted the heavy rainfall and thunderstorm event yesterday now to the east of the Florida Keys, with a sharp upper- level ridge slowly building in from the west. The 12z sounding, however, did sample a very moist profile up to around the 600 mb isobaric surface, modestly steep low- and mid- level lapse rates, and no defined cap on convection. For this afternoon, a combination of the aforementioned weak upper-level synoptic forcing for ascent and chaotic flow at the surface should limit coverage in activity, largely limited to the mesoscale. Inherited a forecast suggesting around 30% coverage for today, and that still seems on track. No changes proposed for the first forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. However, conditions are supportive of cumulus cloud lines along the island chain this afternoon, which may result in a few waterspouts in the adjacent coastal waters. Breezes will gradually shift to the east late this afternoon through Wednesday, as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected at the island terminals. With that said, the environment is capable of supporting convective development. This along with day time heating may result in a round or two of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 89 80 90 / 30 20 30 10 Marathon 79 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest