332
FXUS62 KKEY 191436
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1036 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024
The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a very moist profile up to
around the 700 mb isobaric surface, capped by a weak isothermal
layer between 700-650 mb. KBYX radar has been pretty active this
morning in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, with much
drier conditions being observed in the adjacent Upper Keys. The
focus of convection can largely be attributed to a zone of
confluence, with available marine- and land-based surface
observations indicating moderate to fresh easterly flow in the
eastern zones, with a more southeasterly component further to the
west. Due to the scattered nature of the shower activity, rainfall
amounts have ranged pretty substantially, even across individual
islands. As an example, the office here on White Street in Key
West has measured around 0.60" since midnight, whereas nearby Key
West International Airport has only measured 0.21". Outside of
any passing showers, skies are partly cloudy across the CWA, with
temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s.

For the rest of today, winds should gradually back to the east
across the western zones. With overall convectively-driven
stabilization and a more uniform wind direction, showers should
gradually wane. However, this may take several hours into the
early afternoon to take place. Elected to split the Florida Keys
zones for higher measurable rain chances and slightly lower high
temperatures in the Lower and Middle Keys. No other changes
proposed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys
marine zones, including the Florida Bay, Bayside and Gulfside,
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of
Florida. Occasional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
particularly in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, will
produce heavy downpours reducing visibility and wind gusts
generally 25 to 30 knots. From synopsis, strong surface high
pressure centered off the New England coast working in tandem with
falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of
Campeche will result in moderate to fresh breezes this afternoon
through late week. A weak area of low pressure will begin to
develop later this afternoon a few hundred miles north of the
central Bahamas and move towards the Southeast U.S. coastline.
This will lead to slackening east to southeast breezes for Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024
TEMPO for passing showers is included at both terminals through 15z.
Shower activity should start to decrease going into the afternoon
and near surface winds will continue to be east to southeast near 15
knots with gusts of near 25 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 19th, on this day in 1999, Marathon`s high temperature only
reached 82 degrees and the rain gauge recorded 1.40 inches of
rainfall, both records for the date. Temperature and rainfall
records for Marathon date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  82  89  81 /  50  40  50  40
Marathon  89  82  89  82 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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