Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
815 FXUS62 KKEY 171423 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1023 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Currently - A nearly closed and stacked trough over the eastern United States is the dominant synoptic feature across the broader area this morning. This troughing is playing a role in keeping the lower tropospheric ridge stretched across our area. Meanwhile, a very weak surface low is centered over the Carolinas, resulting in a poorly defined flow across our area. This mornings sounding indicated that precipitable water was very near the daily maximum at 2.38 inches. Inhibition was limited with considerable CAPE. This along with good upper level support has contributed to a broad band of showers and thunderstorms concentrated mainly on our gulf and bay side waters, and more recently on the western Florida Straits. Despite the overcast skies and amount of stuff on radar, relatively little of it has managed to push into the Keys. Short Term Update - In the very short term, it appears that the chance for heavy rain will be rather low due to the dominant outflow boundary having sagged south of the Florida Keys and the band across our gulf and bay side is almost entirely stratiform. With that said, healthy upper level support and ample moisture remains across our area. It won`t take much for redevelopment once the boundary layer is able to recover. As a result, will maintain likely PoPs. When not convectively disturbed, expect surface winds to remain light and variable, tending southeasterly. Day time highs will be largely dependent on if the sun can break out and should range from the upper 80s to near 90. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A weak low centered over the Carolinas will continue the stretch of poorly defined flow across Keys waters this afternoon. A more convectively active pattern is in place. As a result, expect increased shower and thunderstorm coverage with considerable cloud cover. Only minor adjustments made in the morning marine update. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 916 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to linger in our area throughout the afternoon. For the time being, thunderstorms or showers are not directly impacting the airports, so VCSH will prevail while closely monitoring for any needed TEMPOs. Near surface winds outside of convection will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest