Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
070 FXUS62 KKEY 161356 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 956 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A rather quiet morning persists across the Florida Keys. The KKEY 12Z sounding measured precipitable water values right around the 90th percentile for the day, complete with weak southwesterly winds. The daily concern is, once again, cloud line development across the islands. Available CAPE is more than sufficient to sustain heavy rainfall and once daily heating erodes lingering morning CIN, very little will prevent shower development. Breezes will remain light and periodically variable while the subtropical ridge remains weak, in part thanks to the development and movement northwest into the Carolina coastline of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. This low pressure system will continue to modify the surrounding environment through shifting the flow of moisture, and any lingering dry air will start to be washed out as air with PWATs in excess of 2.5 inches lifts across the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light and generally variable breezes will continue through Friday over the Florida Keys coastal waters. A developing low pressure system off the Carolina coast will generate a higher northerly swell off the Upper Keys for Tuesday and Wednesday. The low will deepen into an upper level trough and slowly slide south towards the Florida Peninsula by Friday. Unpredictability in the movement of this trough means confidence in the extended forecast is very low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 97F was recorded at Marathon International Airport. This is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of September for the Marathon area. Temperatures records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest