Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
695 FXUS62 KKEY 150247 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1047 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted trough axis in the Gulf of Mexico. The node in the base of the axis appears to be retrograding west, while the axis in the northeastern Gulf is sliding southeast. The late afternoon visibile satellite imagery placed a surface trough from near the Yucatan, northeast to near Florida. There were multiple MCVs noted along the trough axis. The Florida Keys are in the diffluent low-level flow between the cyclonic curvature near the Yucatan and the ridge to our east. Post rain stabilization and the diffluent flow have resulted in a nearly echo free KBYX radar. There are indications from the global models that the mid to upper trough axis may result in some falling heights overnight in the southeastern Gulf and the Keys. Combined with the developing southeasterly flow, it is hard to to lower than 50% rain/ thunder chances. The forecast is on track and needs no adjustments. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Breezes will diminish on Saturday, followed by diminished rain and thunder chances Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, breezes will freshen Sunday night through Monday night as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States and the extreme western North Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes will continue through Wednesday night as low pressure slides west across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The KBYX radar is nearly echo free and the TAFs at the EYW and MTH terminals advertise VFR for the overnight period. As the east- southeasterlies develop Saturday afternoon, island cloud lines and low-level moisture convergence may introduce chances for thunderstorms at both terminals. This scenario is not included in the current TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 86 81 87 / 50 40 20 20 Marathon 79 87 81 87 / 50 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest